Goldfeder: What Was I Thinking - Building a bankroll

In my last article I started with $20 and built the bankroll to $105.80. The objective is to build a bankroll by continuing to move the chains. Using a football analogy each $100 is the equivalent of 10 yards. When I get to $1,000 that will be my first touchdown. On 11/25 and 11/27 I played a few races with the $105.85 bankroll and it grew to $138. I documented each race as they took place and followed up with a review. This brought me to …

11/28

Bankroll: $138

Focus: Aqueduct with an eye around the country

Goal: Move the chains and get the bankroll to $200

Aqueduct race 2

I sat on my hands as I watched No. 4 Escape to the Moon score while forwardly placed. I was going to play him but I was suspect of his last race, which was over a speed-favoring track. He had shown at least thre previous efforts that made him a player in this spot, and with his odds at 10-1 I should have been involved. He paid $22.80 to win and $10.20 to place. What was I thinking?

Aqueduct race 3

I will begin the day with $3 to win-place on No. 1 Flora Dora, currently 5-2 and not getting a mention from any analysts despite being live on the board. She is coming off a good effort in the Tempted, and I'm pretty sure she will get the distance. Because of her low profile connections I expect she will drift to 3-1. She did go off at 3-1.

She trailed against a slow pace and couldn't close fast enough to get a piece, finishing 4th. Loss of $6.

Bankroll: $132; goal is $140

Tampa Bay race 2

No. 2 I'm Really Sumthin fits well here and is going off a tepid favorite at 7-2. I’m betting $3 to win-place.

She went off at 3-1 and tracked the pace three wide, chasing evenly through the stretch and finishing a clear third. Loss of $6.

Bankroll: $126 Goal is now $135

Gulfstream Park West race 3

Turf maidens. No. 10 JB's Big Red (5-1) has experience and is bred well for the turf in his first attempt running on grass. I’ll bet $5 to show.

He pressed the pace through the turn and came up empty in the stretch. Loss of $5. With the bankroll at $121 based on the parameters I set I can still wager up to $6 (5% of bankroll).

Bankroll: $121; goal $130

Aqueduct race 4

One of my favorite horses was Criminologist. Now her son the No. 1 Inspector Lynley makes his second start for Shug McGaughey. I expect a forward move. I’ll bet $3 win-place (2-1).

He had a good trip and looked like he was going to win but was run down by a Chad Brown first-time starter, No. 9 Annals of Time. I should expect nothing else as Brown beats me more than any other trainer. Perhaps the conservative win-place approach was the wrong way to go. Rather than bet place I could have played $1 exactas under Annals of Time and No. 6 Snag, the other logical contender. Place price was $3.90. Total loss in race $3.15. The exacta paid $21.90 for $1 - WWIT?

Bankroll: $120.85; goal $130

Aqueduct race 5

The Remsen. At 9-2 the No. 2 Sail Ahoy is a good price. Given the way things have been going and the fact that there might not be enough pace, I will just play $2 across the board. I was tempted to play a daily double but I would have had to use four horses in the next race and for now I need to build the bankroll back up.

He looked loaded on the turn but when the leaders drew away in the stretch he made up no ground, finishing a non-threatening fourth. Loss of $6.

Bankroll: $114.85

Tampa race 4

No. 12 Nyoman at 4-1 seems a good price. I’ll bet $2 to win-place. I was thinking exacta key with three horses, but with a smaller bankroll this was the play.

He finished second to the favorite. The $1 exacta paid $9.40, which is a better payoff than the place bet. I will need to mix it up a little going forward. He paid $4.20 to place. Total profit 20 cents.

Bankroll: $115.05

Gulfstream Park West race 5

Can No. 10 Tiznoble follow up his front-running maiden score at 6-1 in this one-mile event? He has a bad post, but 7-1 makes it worth a shot.

He pressed the pace but flattened out while wide in the stretch. Actually it was a good second start and he is worth keeping an eye on. Loss of $4.

Bankroll: $111.05

Laurel race 5

The most likely winner is probably No. 3 Lady Anita. That said, I went with a pedigree play. I’ll bet $2 to show on No. 2 Magnettes (20-1) along with an exacta box for $1 with No. 3 Lady Anita, No. 5 Adira and No. 8 Time to Spare. Total spend $8 - a bit high (7% of bankroll).

Magnettes had a perfect trip stalking the leaders and had a good chance to contend as they hit the top of the stretch. No. 1 Max's Warrior and Time to Spare drew away. Magnettes chased through the stretch, finishing a good third. Had I played a 50-cent tri with her under the four horses who took money I would have been back in business. The 50-cent tri paid $64. She paid $12 to show, so overall I did make $4 profit.

Bankroll: $115.05

Aqueduct race 7

No. 1 Peace and War drew the rail and is going off at 6-1. She is one of the few I think will be okay with the distance. I’ll bet $2 to win and place.

She went off at 9-2 and trailed most of the race and was unable to make up any ground in the stretch, finishing fifth. Loss of $4.

Bankroll: $111.05 Goal is $120

Aqueduct race 8

I like the No. 9 Goodtolook (4-1) as lone speed, so I will single him in the pick three and the daily double. In the pick three I will use No. 5 Tonalist and No. 7 Private Zone in leg two, and No. 5 Kitty Madness, No. 6 Kristen's Limits and No. 10 Sophia's Choice in leg three. Cost of the pick three ticket is $6, and a $1 daily double 9/3-4-5-7 cost $4. I included No. 3 Red Vine and No. 4 Matrooh as possible price plays in the daily double. I also played $2 on Goodtolook to win in race 8. I played the exacta as a place bet: 1-2-6-10/9 ($4). I added a 9/all exacta for $1. $22 wagered is 20% of my bankroll. I’m pressing.

Goodtolook had the lead but was caught by Chad Brown-trained No. 10 Financial Modeling, who drew away for nice win. Goodtolook faded to sixth. Loss of $22.

Bankroll: $89.05; goal is $100

Tampa race 7

I’m using a 3-5 shot, No. 8 Cement Clement, to key a 50-cent trifecta, 8/1-2-6-12. Basically I’m taking a stand against the second choice, No. 7 Russian Greek (7-2).

Cement Clement was much the best but the 5 and 9 outfinished my contenders for second and third. Loss of $6.

Bankroll: $83.05; goal is $90

Laurel race 8

No. 1 Great Plan goes turf to dirt with a nice work tab at 3-1. I’ll bet $2 to win-place.

Great Plan had a perfect trip while tracking a slow pace, but the two leaders drew away. No excuse finishing a clear third. Loss of $4.

Bankroll: $79.05; goal still $90

Churchill race 7

No. 1A Ifusnoozeyoulose looked good on paper in this off-the-turf affair. I’ll bet $2 to win and $1 exacta boxes 1-6 and 1-10. This $6 wager is 7% of the bankroll.

Ifusnoozeyoulose ran very wide and was under a hard ride on the turn. He had nothing. Loss of $6.

Bankroll: $73.05 Goal $80

Tampa race 8

No. 3 Danzig Storm looks best in this field. I have some history with him, so I feel I can trust him. I’ll bet $2 to win on him; a $1 exacta 3/4-5-7-11; and and a 50-cent tri 3/4-5-7-11. This $12 wager is 16% of the bankroll.

Danzig Storm had nothing. Loss of $12.

Bankroll: $61.05 Goal $70

Hawthorne 3

No. 3 Purely Given is 5-1. He retained his sharp form when switching from synthetic to dirt when he doubled up a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in October at Hawthorne. That race would make him tough here and stamps him as a contender. He has the best shot to upset the even-money favorite, No. 4 Recount. I’ll bet $2 win-place on Purely Given.

Purely Given tracked the pace and finished second to the favorite. Cashed a place ticket for the first time in a while. Place paid $5.20, so I actually made $1.20 on the race.

Bankroll: $62.25; goal $70

Aqueduct race 10

Back to my home track to try to get something going. The horses I played in my now-dead pick three ticket included No. 5 Kitty Maddnes, No. 6 Kristen's Limits and No. 10 Sophia's Choice. I also respect No. 4 Alabama Bound and feel the well-bred No. 11 Out Of Nowhere and first-time-blinkered No. 7 Preying Mantis are worth using. The best price currently belongs to Kitty Maddnes (5-1). I liked what I saw in her first start and feel she could improve. I’ll bet $2 on 5 to win-place; a $1 exacta box using the 5 with 4-6-7-10-11; and a 50-cent tri 5/4-6-7-10-11. Wagered $24 on this race – 38% of the bankroll. If I lose I will be down to $38.25.

Kitty Maddnes went off at 4-1 and won. The order of finish was 5-11-10-4. This put me ahead for the day. The profit: $8.20 for win, $3.60 for place, $82.25 for the exacta and $155.25 for triple. Total profit $249.30.

Bankroll: $311.55 Goal achieved.

Total wagers $127

Profit; $173.55

ROI: $1.37/$1.00

Win Bets:

1-13 (8%)

ROI: -.69/$1.00

Place Bets:

4-10 (40%)

ROI: -.31/$1.00

Show Bets

1-3 (30%)

ROI: +.33/$1.00

Exactas

1-34 +58.25

Triples

1-44 +143.25

There are many roads that lead to Rome. What happened on 11/28 has happened to me before. I have a bad run, then I cash one thing and that is followed up with another winning wager. It may be coincidence or it may be psychological but on this day I knew when to take the chance. That said, it is not the way I am drawing this journey up. In other words, this was not the way I wanted to reach my daily goal. I want to and need to stay on the path of wagering a maximum of 5% of my bankroll. If I waver from this strategy the chances of my going bust increase. I was prepared to work with the $38 bankroll if that’s what would have happened, but I would have had start all over again and grind it out to get in the position I want to be where I can increase my wagering options. Even with $311 I am not comfortable enough to “send anything in.” Going forward I can call an audible and wager a little more than 5% of the bankroll if the situation merits it, but I want to try to avoid going over 10%. I know I can’t survive hitting only 8% of win bets, so that needs to improve along with better decision-making when it comes to place and exacta wagering to cover the second position.

The next step will be to get to the 50 yard line-$500.