Goldfeder: How I'd play Del Mar for Friday, July 17

“Another beautiful day at Del Mar where the weather is pretty much the same every day of the year.”

So said the cab driver as he drove me to my hotel just outside the track a couple of years ago. Just like with the nearby Pacific Ocean, where the water is just the right temperature, I think we can jump into the first race and hope to start the day off on a good roll.

Race 1

I think it’s worth a shot to key (3) Last One Standing (ML 4-1).

As Mike Hogan points out in his Del Mar "Bet This, Not That" column:

“If Peter Miller debuts a 2-year-old for a tag at Del Mar, take notice; he’s probably ready to run. Over the past five years, he’s 26-11-1-3 for a $4.17 ROI with those runners.”

On the dirt over the past three years with first-time starters in maiden-claiming races he is 9 for 31 (29 percent) with an ROI of $4.11, so the change from Polytrack to dirt at Del Mar should not be an issue. Every single winner had a workout pattern similar to Last One Standing’s, which included at least three four- to six-furlong workouts before the initial start.

I’ll bet him to win and key in exactas with:

(2) Navy Hymn (ML 5-2), making his second start after contesting a fast pace, putting away his rival and holding on for second. And (4) Benesh (ML 4-1), dropping in class for the red-hot John Sadler. Hogan also references Sadler:

“When he drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming at Del Mar, he’s 14-6-5-1 for a $3.71 ROI; that’s 43 percent winners and 86 percent in the money.”

Race 2

(2) No Contingency (ML 3-1): First off the claim for Jeff Bonde, he controlled the pace and wired the field. Goes against many of the same today and may be able to repeat.

(7) Big Sugar Soda (ML 8-1): In his second start as a gelding, he lost contact in his last race but had good run late and should improve first time out for Peter Miller.

Early DD: 3/2-7 (key wager); 2-4/2-7 (backup DD for less)

Race 3

(1) Lucky Shoes To Win (ML 5-1): Potential lone speed will take them as far as he can.

Early pick 3

Race 5

(2) Not Too Shiny (ML 12-1): Lightly raced mare may need a race coming off a layoff but has tactical speed and has been running against better competition. Reunites with Corey Nakatani, who was aboard for her maiden win. At anything near 12-1 morning line she is a must play.

In addition to a win bet on Not Too Shiny, key her in exactas with: (8) Doodetta (ML 6-1), (9) Windy Forecast (ML 9-2), and (6) Ramona’s Wildcat (ML 15-1).

Trifecta: 8-9-6/8-9-6/2