Going to the front is key for Joes Blazing Aaron
Pace will make the race in Thursday’s $80,000 optional-claiming feature, when Joes Blazing Aaron goes to the front and dares five other turf-meant rivals to catch him in race 8. Those tactics have worked repeatedly this year for Joes Blazing Aaron, who was a sacrificial “rabbit” for former stablemate Big Blue Kitten in last year’s Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.
Joes Blazing Aaron was eased that day, but he nearly sprang a 22-1 shocker in the Grade 2 Pan American three starts later, when he led to deep stretch and wound up fourth. He has won 3 of 5 starts since then in front-running fashion.
Joes Blazing Aaron enjoyed an uncontested lead in winning first off the claim by Steve Klesaris, but a contested early tempo in Thursday’s 1 1/4-mile turf race would aid Can’thelpbelieving, a stretch runner who drops from a third in the $230,417 Dueling Grounds Derby for Graham Motion.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 7 Joes Blazing Aaron. Trainer Steve Klesaris is 23-1-4-1 with a $0.83 ROI over the past five years in turf routes in the start following a win. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Can’thelpbelieving gets a rider switch back to John Velazquez, who was aboard for the 3-year-old colt’s first-level allowance victory on opening day at Saratoga.
Cousin Stephen and St Moose run only if the race is switched to the main track, in which case the distance would change to 1 1/8 miles.
Page McKenney, who was expected to put pace pressure on Joes Blazing Aaron, was scratched.
KEY CONTENDERS
Joes Blazing Aaron (Last 3 Beyers: 95-71-94)
◗ He is the field’s top earner ($370,291), including a win in the Grade 3 Palm Beach as a 3-year-old in 2011.
◗ He won on yielding turf at Belmont in October 2012.
Can’thelpbelieving (Last 3 Beyers: 82-85-88)
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: He ran the last three furlongs in a swift 34.14 seconds to win at Saratoga over My Afleet, who has subsequently won twice, including the Dueling Grounds Derby.
◗ He is the only entrant turning back from a longer race (1 5/16 miles).
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 9 Can'thelpbelieving. Trainer Graham Motion is 44-14-6-3 with a $5.76 ROI over the past five years in turf routes of 10 furlongs and longer in the second start following a layoff. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Red Vine (Last 3 Beyers: 88-88-99)
◗ Any rain to soften up the turf works in his favor, based on a career-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure on yielding turf three races back.
◗ He has never finished out of the money in six starts on turf at Belmont.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 3 Red Vine. Trainer Christophe Clement is 74-8-11-18 with a $0.70 ROI over the past two years in turf routes of 10 furlongs and longer. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan