Godolphin's second-teamer Proxy favored in Lexington

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Next stop, Louisville. The road to the Kentucky Derby makes its way through a couple of final checkpoints Saturday, with the closest to Churchill Downs being the one just up Interstate 64 at Keeneland in the rival town of Lexington.

The Godolphin folks are familiar with the route, having increased its already considerable profile in recent years by using more and more trainers who station regularly in Kentucky. One of those is Brad Cox, who trains the pro-tem favorite for the 147th Derby in Essential Quality, a Godolphin homebred who won the Blue Grass Stakes last Saturday. Another is Mike Stidham, who’ll send out another Team Blue homebred in Proxy as the favorite Saturday in the 39th running of the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes, a 20-8-4-2 points qualifier for the May 1 Derby at Churchill.

:: Get Marcus Hersh’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Keeneland

The $200,000 Lexington will be run as the ninth of 11 races on a Saturday card that starts at 1:05 p.m. Eastern. Post time is 5:30, meaning it will be run a little more than two hours before the Arkansas Derby (7:41) at Oaklawn Park concludes the Derby prep season as a 100-40-20-10 qualifier.

Funny, but with Essential Quality at the ready, Godolphin and Stidham don’t seem to be putting any pressure on themselves for Proxy to show himself worthy of advancing to Churchill for the Derby. The colt has been steady, if not spectacular, in collecting 34 Derby points with his in-money finishes in three preps at Fair Grounds, and Stidham has declared the Lexington the determining factor in what lies ahead for Proxy. Chances are that Proxy can run in the Derby; the primary post-race question will be whether Godolphin wants him to.

“Everything we do after the Lexington depends on what he does Saturday,” said Stidham. “I can’t tell you right now if we’ll run in the Derby or the Preakness or wherever until this race is behind us. He’s doing well and I’m happy with him, so we’ll just have to see.”

Proxy, with John Velazquez riding, will break from post 7 in a field of 10 3-year-olds in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington. With plenty of speed in opposition here, the Tapit colt might well find himself farther behind than he’s been in the early stages of his New Orleans races. He raced in mid-pack for much of the way before settling for fourth in the Louisiana Derby, a 1 3/16-mile race held three weeks ago, and now he’s turning back when facing the likes of Noble Reflection and Swiftsure, both stretching out from six-furlong races, and California shippers Bezos and It’s My House, both of whom were on the lead the entire way in last-out victories.

“We’ll have Johnny play it as it comes,” said Stidham. “This colt has been pretty versatile, so hopefully he can find a good spot to settle in.”

With 30-something points appearing to be the approximate benchmark for getting into the Derby this year, the Lexington will have to serve as something other than a Derby prep for most of the others. Hockey Dad (post 6, Mario Gutierrez), another California horse, can add to the 20 points he earned with a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks two weeks ago at Turfway Park and advance to the Derby with what would qualify as a mild upset here, or at least become a bubble possibility with a runner-up finish. But other than him and Proxy, the only Lexington starters with points from prior races are Unbridled Honor (5) and It’s My House (1).

Unbridled Honor (post 5, Julien Leparoux) is one who stands to benefit from a too-fast pace. The Mandy Pope homebred by Honor Code was a no-threat fourth in the March 6 Tampa Bay Derby but has shown himself capable of passing rivals under the right circumstances. Unbridled Honor will be looking to extend Todd Pletcher’s record five wins by a trainer in the Lexington. Pletcher already has as many as four prospective starters for the Kentucky Derby, led by Florida Derby winner Known Agenda.

Main-track races going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland begin and end at what otherwise is the sixteenth pole.

The Lexington will be co-featured Saturday with the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley (race 10), a filly-mare turf route in which Godolphin and Stidham also have a major player in a field of six in Micheline, an older half-sister to Proxy. The Grade 3 Ben Ali (race 7) and the Giant’s Causeway (race 8) also are part of a terrific card, with all the stakes linked together in a pick-four wager with a $300,000 pool guarantee.

Following a rainy Thursday and a sunny Friday, the forecast Saturday is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain and a high of 70.