Giwner: Doubling the pleasure for Meadowlands bettors

When The Meadowlands made the decision to switch from Pick 3 wagers in most races to Daily Doubles, it was met with assorted emotions. While some like myself were prepared to take a wait and see approach, others on social media have consistently been complaining about the move citing low handle figures produced by the switch.

With a small sample available to examine, the results of the daily double experiment have been mixed depending on how you interpret the numbers.

I compared the first four dates of 2019 with the final four Friday and Saturday dates from 2018. The 34 doubles offered in 2019 produced an average handle of $15,929 while the 36 Pick 3s from 2018 resulted in an average of $13,843. So, from at least one perspective the “rolling” doubles outperformed the “rolling” Pick 3s.

If you combine the average wagering on the double and Pick 3 wagers for 2019, you come up with $43,720, slightly below the $43,929 from 2018. This means that while the doubles appear to be doing better by $2,000 per race in handle, the net averages produced more of a flat result (slightly down).

Looking at things from another angle, if you remove all of the doubles (Race 1 and last race) and Pick 3s (third to last race nightly) that existed previously from the calculations, the average handle on the new doubles offered comes in at $11,591 versus $12,144 for the old Pick 3s.

What conclusions can we make from these numbers?

Basically the switch from Pick 3s to doubles has produced little to no effect on handle. Whether you like or dislike the move really comes down to personal wagering preference. I’ve always preferred the Pick 3s, but I’ve seamlessly moved to doubles and I find that when I wager my total investment is about the same.

Perhaps a more interesting set of numbers involve the early and late doubles along with the late Pick 3. Regardless of whether The Meadowlands offered more doubles or more Pick 3s, the late and early doubles average just over $30,000 per race, which is more than twice the average of all other double wagers offered. The late Pick 3 for the eight dates averaged $26,270, also more than twice the average of any other Pick 3s offered.

Why is it that the late and early double along with the late Pick 3 are so well received while those same wagers offered in the middle of the card can’t seem to come close in handle? Is it possible that neither the double nor the Pick 3 is the answer to increased handle? Or maybe 7-9 doubles or Pick 3s are too many to have on a card?

What if we reduced the numbers to make the wagers more exclusive and also attached a Guarantee to each pool? This model works for the Pick 4 and Pick 5 on a nightly basis at tracks across North America. Why can’t it work for the Pick 3?

Putting my GM hat on for a minute, what if The Meadowlands offered the following multi-race wagering menu for a 13-race card:

Race 1 – $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 5, Double

Race 3 – Survivor Pick 10

Race 4 – $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 3

Race 6 – Mid Double

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick 4

Race 11 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 3

Race 12 – Late Double

Basically my plan cuts three doubles or Picks 3s from a typical 13-race card, but I’m assuming the reduction in wagers along with the guarantees will increase handle overall. And I didn’t just pick the locations of the wagers randomly. The first Pick 3 allows those knocked out of the Pick 5 to take another shot. The mid-double provides the same opportunity for those out of the early Pick 3 and keeps all multi-race wagers off the start of the Pick 4, which is the featured wager of the night. The late Pick 3 comes at the tail end of the Pick 4 and allows all who were eliminated to try another multi-race wager with a guaranteed pool.

My menu provides ample opportunity for anyone who enjoys the potential big pay days of multi-race wagers while keeping them exclusive enough that the pools have a better chance to attract bettors.

Will it work?

There is only one way to find out.