Gigante could provide value in puzzling River City

Recency bias has colored the morning line for the Grade 3 River City Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs. If it bleeds into the betting market, the race should present a value-laden proposition.

The River City, a 1 1/8-mile grass race for older horses, drew 10 entrants, though no more than nine will start, with Harlan Estate’s connections opting for a Thursday turf allowance.

The linemaker opted to list Cash Equity, drawn on the far outside, as the 5-2 favorite in the Grade 3, $300,000 River City. A shaky favorite he would be.

Six-year-old Cash Equity has seen a good chunk of the world over the last four years. Cash Equity began his career racing in the French provinces, made 10 starts in France, then was sent to trainer Phil D’Amato in Southern California. Claimed by owner Ken Ramsey for $80,000 about a year ago, Cash Equity made one start in Florida, then traveled to Barbados in March to finish second in the Barbados Gold Cup. He since has started at Saratoga, Churchill, Kentucky Downs, and, most recently, at Keeneland, where Cash Equity found himself in deep water, seventh in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile.

Forecast favoritism Saturday traces to a pair of races over the course of six days at Kentucky Downs: a good third in a $500,000 handicap, a better second in the $1.8 million Mint Millions. That Mint Millions marks the only start that might set him apart from a host of others in the River City, and Kentucky Downs is a specialists’ track. Expect something closer to Cash Equity’s baseline, and do not expect victory.

Two others, Reckoning Force (who was fourth) and Emmanuel (fifth), raced in the Mint Millions, and, perhaps not coincidentally, both came up too short on the line. Reckoning Force, listed at 3-1, went from the Mint Millions to finish third, albeit a close third, in the five-horse Knickerbocker at Aqueduct. Emmanuel, listed at 7-2, lost by more than 12 lengths Sept. 28 in the Turf Classic, also at Aqueduct. Now trained by Mike Maker, Emmanuel’s best days came during the first part of 2023 for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Where might the win money otherwise land? Classy pace player Masteroffoxhounds can’t go as high as 12-1, can he? Surely, he needed a solid comeback second at Keeneland last month, and his standard performance fits the spot.

Also marked down at 12-1, Gigante is the selection to win this race.

Go back to March, several months but only two starts ago for Gigante, and find a performance easily good enough to win Saturday. Facing older rivals for just the second time, 4-year-old Gigante took a stretch call lead before settling for second behind I’m Very Busy in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds. I’m Very Busy at the time was as fast as any middle-distance grass horse in North America. Gigante didn’t race again until Oct. 10, when he finished sixth behind Masteroffoxhounds at Keeneland.

“He has not run well on the Keeneland turf before, but we needed a race to run our best in the River City,” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “I do expect him to improve.”

Go back even further, to the Secretariat 15 months ago at Colonial Downs, and find form to buttress Gigante’s peak. None of it happened recently, but it can happen again in the River City.

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