Gierkink's preview: Rain threatens turf stakes
Rain, rain--go away
Heavy rain on Wednesday night softened up the turf course, and there’s more rain in the forecast for Saturday, which would put a damper on the two one-mile Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In stakes for 2-year-olds on the card, the Grade 2 Natalma and the Grade 2 Summer.
Lane 3 for the course on Saturday, and Lane 1 will be used for Sunday’s Woodbine Mile card.
Natalma Stakes
Don’t Leave Me (7-2) merits top billing in the diverse 12-horse field. After a troubled break, she rallied wide from last to win the seven-furlong prep for the Natalma. That allowance didn’t have the strongest of fields, but she was visually impressive doing it.
Saratoga-based Isabella Sings (3-1) has been idle since winning her debut in a six-furlong turf sprint on July 10 at Belmont. Corey Nakatani rides the daughter of freshman sire Eskendereya for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has never won this race.
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Trainer Mark Casse, who has won the Natalma four times, sends out the contenders Conquest Harlanate (5-1) and Dixie Twist (6-1).
Skinner Box (12-1) fought for the lead before holding on to beat New York-bred maidens when she debuted in a turf sprint at Saratoga. There is lots of other speed in the Natalma field, but the front-running maiden winner Reserved (8-1) showed that she can rally effectively when she narrowly lost her debut to Don’t Leave Me.
Summer Stakes
Trainer Mark Casse won last year’s Summer with the debuting filly My Conquestadory. He sends out the unbeaten Conquest Tsunami (7-5) and the promising maiden Conquest Typhoon (6-1) this time.
Conquest Tsunami was hard-pressed in his turf debut in the seven-furlong allowance prep for the Summer, in which he dug in late to prevail by a head after being challenged by Passion for Action. Casse is adamant that the big bay doesn’t need the lead to be effective, and has found himself there in all of his races because he’s a sharp breaker.
Interestingly, Corey Nakatani takes over from Patrick Husbands on Conquest Tsunami. Husbands retains the mount on Conquest Typhoon, who was a narrow loser to Passion for Action in a six-furlong maiden special on grass Aug. 3.
Imperial Dream (4-1) is experimenting on grass off an impressive front-running score in the Vandal Stakes. Like Conquest Tsunami and Conquest Typhoon, he’s an Ontario-bred by the accomplished turf sire Stormy Atlantic.
The Saratoga shipper Saratoga Dreamer (5-2) came three-wide from fifth to capture his only race comfortably in a turf sprint for New York-bred maidens at the Spa on Aug. 20.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Saratoga Dreamer’s trainer, Christophe Clement, is 0 for 12 in graded stakes at Woodbine during the last five years. Perhaps the most lucrative day of Clement’s career took place here on Canadian International Day in 2005, when he swept the Grade 1 Canadian International and the Grade 2 Nearctic.
Jackpot Hi 5 carryover $416K
The Jackpot Hi 5 carryover heading into the 10th race is $416,510. Conquest Outlaw is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the $8,000 sprint for nonwinners of three. He’s dropping off a double-digit loss in an optional $20,000 claiming event, as is the speedy Check Em (4-1). It’s just a guess as to how they will fare, but Check Em has a chance to go all the way if he clears the field early.
Western Tune (6-1) should be a factor on the cut-back from a fading sixth-place finish in a $12,500 nonwinners of three route, which was the case when he turned back to a sprint from 1 1/16 miles and ran second Aug. 8.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Western Tune’s trainer, Stu Simon, has an 11 percent strike rate with route/sprint starters on synthetics over the past five years, with a return on investment of $3.98.
Horse to watch
VICTORIA BEEBE
Trainer: John Ross
Last race: Sept. 10, 4th
Finish: 3rd by 2
Beyer: 60
She saved ground over an outside-biased track while closing belatedly in a difficult $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares. A drop in class for her next start should make her a major player.