Gierkink’s preview: Queen’s Plate was exception to speed bias

Track trends

Speed was effective on Queen’s Plate Day last Sunday, when front-runners and stalkers won eight of the nine Polytrack events. The exception was the 1 1/4-mile Plate itself, in which a fast pace negated the bias that was bucked by closers Lexie Lou and Ami’s Holiday, who ran one-two.

Asserting Bear finished a commendable third after setting fractions of 23.23 and 47.09 seconds into a strong wind. He went on get the three-quarter split in 1:11.54 and a mile in 1:36.88, before tiring in the final furlong.

A similar bias seemed to exist last Saturday, which benefited longshot Eighty Nine Red and the favored Flashy Margaritta, who dominated the six-furlong Achievement Stakes.

Turf in jeopardy?

Heavy rainfall on Tuesday has endangered the two turf races on the Wednesday card. The temporary lane is set up in lane 4.

Race 3

The Stronach Stable entry of Unikat and Hiking Buddy should be favored if this 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight race remains on the grass. Hiking Buddy struggled in his recent debut, but the Brian Lynch-trained Unikat ran third in a marathon March 19 maiden special over the Gulfstream sod that produced two next-out winners.

Countryman has placed in two of his three Polytrack excursions, and should be prominent if the proceedings are moved to the main track.

Johnny Bear, the $280,000 sale-topper from the local yearling sale in 2012, is making his second career start following a closing sixth in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special.

Race 4

Morning-line favorite Rei is dropping from first-level allowance company to meet $40,000 non-winners of two types going 1 1/16 miles. The Mark Casse-trained 4-year-old is in decent form, and can handle either surface.

Mike the Hab (12-1) is bred for the grass on both sides of his pedigree, and wouldn’t be much of a surprise in his turf debut. He defeated $20,000 maidens going long on the Polytrack June 20, when Chantal Sutherland-Kruse rode him for the first time.

Horses to Watch

FLORIDA WON

Trainer: Mark Casse

Last race: July 5, 8th

Finish: 3rd by 1

Beyer: 78

He got away slowly before closing widest from eighth in his stakes debut in the one-mile Charlie Barley, in which he left several talented rivals in his wake. The son of Birdstone is eligible for a first-level allowance, a condition he should be able to clear with ease.

AMI’S HOLIDAY

Trainer: Josie Carroll

Last race: July 6, 11th

Finish: 2nd by 1 1/2

Beyer: 86

He took the long way around after starting from post 15 in the 1 1/4-mile Queen’s Plate, before darting to the rail early in the stretch while in search of a clear path, and finished a clear second. According to Trakus, he ran six feet farther than victorious Lexie Lou, who