Gierkink's preview: Four stakes on Canadian International Day

Canadian International Day features four stakes, including three graded events on the turf. Lane 1 will be used on a course that will have some give to it, ground that should give an advantage to some of the European invaders.

Canadian International

Carded as race 6, the $1 million Canadian International is early on the program to accommodate national TV coverage. The 1 1/2-mile Grade 1 is the third leg of the early pick four, which will have a guaranteed pool of $100,000.

I prefer the 5-1 third choice Hillstar, who is going on Lasix off a Group 3 victory over good-to-soft ground in England. Expect him to be lower than 5-1 by the 3:32 p.m. post time for the race.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Hillstar’s trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, is 2 for 4 with first-time Lasix-users over the past five years with a return on investment of $3.05. Those two winners both came in major Grade 1 stakes: Conduit in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf and Dank in the 2013 Beverly D.

Brown Panther, the 2-1 favorite from England, romped in his last outing going 1 3/4 miles in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger. The 6-year-old is 10 for 24 lifetime, which includes five 12-furlong tallies during his formative years.

Sheikhzayedroad, who won the local prep, the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf, finished well back as a longshot in Saturday’s Grade 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket. The disappointing Northern Dancer favorite from Chicago, The Pizza Man (6-1), shipped in early for the Canadian International and might prove best of the three runners exiting that race.

Reporting Star (20-1) was a troubled third in the Northern Dancer. He figures to set the pace again after breaking from the outside under Justin Stein.

“He’s been a pleasant surprise,” said trainer Pat Parente. “I think he really likes the racetracks here. He doesn’t mind the Poly and loves the turf. He has natural speed and quite a bit of stamina to go with it.”

Big Blue Kitten (3-1) prefers firm turf. The two-time Grade 1 winner was better in 2013 than he’s been this year. Joel Rosario has the mount for trainer Chad Brown.

Nearctic Stakes

The eighth race, the $300,000 Nearctic Stakes, kicks off the late pick four, which also has a guaranteed pool of $100,000. The six-furlong turf sprint is wide open, and one could make a case for many of the 10 entrants.

Calgary Cat (7-2) has been saddled with post 10. He’ll likely have a wide journey, which wasn’t the case last time out when he rallied to notch his first stakes in the Grade 3 Bold Venture on the Polytrack.

Even though he wants firm ground, Lockout (5-2) can rally for a share off a sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Lockout’s trainer, Mark Casse, has phenomenal recent stats with turnbacks but has won at an ordinary 17 percent with route-to-sprint starters on turf over the past five years ($1.44 ROI).

The speedy Black Hornet (12-1) should set the pace in his first start on turf, a surface for which he doesn’t possess much breeding. He has been galloping on the main turf course.

The lone European in the lineup, Caspar Netscher (8-1), has been in poor form since last October, but the addition of Lasix means he could exhibit some improvement.

E. P. Taylor Stakes

The $500,000 E. P. Taylor goes as race 10. It probably can be pared down to the gifted Europeans Just the Judge (7-5) and Wall of Sound (15-1), who are exiting a strong showing in key stakes.

Deceptive Vision (2-1) seems vulnerable. The blue-blooded Sam-Son Farm homebred had a perfect ground-saving trip while closing to take the local prep, the Grade 2 Canadian, over about nine furlongs. The 10-furlong distance of the Grade 1 Taylor might not be in her wheelhouse.

The consistent Royal Fury (15-1) could hit the ticket as a longshot off a closing second in the Canadian.

Ontario Fashion Stakes

Disco Barbie (2-1) is a viable single in the late pick four in the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion off a troubled second in the Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters, in which she probably was best.

The six-furlong Polytrack event should have a lively pace set by Goldstryke Glory (5-2), who has been idle since a close sixth-place finish in a fast-paced turf stakes at Saratoga. Her presence will hinder the other frontrunners: Silent Treat, Cryptic Message, and Youcan’tcatchme.

Saratoga-based Native Bombshell (4-1) is hard to gauge in her first outing since a nose victory in the Ruling Angel Stakes here a year ago. Her trainer, Chad Brown, is accomplished with long-term layoff runners.