Gierkink's preview: Ami's Holiday tries turf
Breeders’ Stakes preview
When handicapping the $500,000 Breeders’ Stakes, one should view the anchor leg of the Canadian Triple Crown as a first-level allowance, which every entrant is eligible for except the 2-1 morning-line choice Ami’s Holiday.
The hard-luck Ami’s Holiday was a charging second here in the Queen’s Plate, and a troubled third in the Prince of Wales Stakes on the dirt at Fort Erie. This handsome son of successful turf sire Harlan’s Holiday is competing on grass for the first time after working five-eighths in a bullet 59.20 seconds over the turf training course last Sunday.
“He worked extremely well on the turf,” said trainer Josie Carroll. “He seemed to take to it, and we thought he deserved to give it a try. He came out of those last two races really well, or we were going to wait for the Ontario Derby.”
The 4-1 price on Unikat is a pipedream, and he could be the favorite by post time off a dominating maiden win over 10 furlongs on the local course. This well-bred son of Galileo has been patiently handled by trainer Brian Lynch, who should have won the 2008 Breeders’ with another Stronach Stable runner, Sligovitz, who came up short after ducking out dramatically from the whip in the stretch. Stronach and Lynch did combine to win the 2006 Breeders’ with Royal Challenger.
A case can be made for several others in the 12-horse field. Niigon Express (6-1) is bringing a good turf pedigree into his first grass outing following a plodding fifth in the Plate, which has yielded three next-out winners. Bangkok (15-1) wound up second in Unikat’s maiden voyage, before graduating in a romp on the Polytrack. Keen Gizmo (12-1) finished a wide third against older foes in a recent Ontario-sired allowance. Like stablemate Ami’s Holiday, Keen Gizmo is out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, which isn’t the only stamina in each of their pedigrees.
The three horses supplemented at a cost of $12,500 are Squeeze the King (10-1), Sine Metu (10-1), and Big Red Bugsy (12-1). They all have a chance to crack the super.
Lynch sent out the last maiden to win the Breeders’, Miami Deco, who returned a record $132.10 to win in 2010. The maidens in this year’s edition are Smart Spree (12-1), Milwaukee Flash (30-1), and Interpol (20-1).
The turf remained firm after some afternoon rain Saturday, and a little more overnight rain probably wouldn’t change the course condition to any significant degree. Lane 1 will be used.
Jackpot Hi 5 carryover tops $200,000
The Jackpot Hi 5 carryover heading into the 10th race is $206,441.
There are several struggling droppers in the $12,500 conditioned claimer, including Lady Do Good, who is tagged for the first time following two straight double-digit losses against Ontario-sired maiden special stock.
FORMULATER FACT: Lady Do Good’s trainer, Mike DePaulo, has a 13 percent strike rate with horses going from maiden special to maiden claiming company during the past five years, with a return on investment of $2.05.
Horse to Watch
WEEKEND IN MALIBU
Trainer: Catherine Day Phillips
Last race: Aug. 16, 6th
Finish: 2nd by 2 1/2
She galloped out well in front after a solid debut performance in a six-furlong maiden special for Ontario-sired juvenile fillies, which was won by the more experienced favorite. A stretch-out in distance should enable her to find the winner’s circle soon.