Gierkink: How I'll play Woodbine for Sunday, Sept. 23

The 11-race card, with two separate Pick 4s, is challenging, to say the least.

I believe the favorites Stolen Identity (10) and Blessed Too (2) are vulnerable in the featured sixth race, the Bull Page Stakes. Stolen Identity got sick and missed some training after his front-running debut score on a speed-favoring track July 29. Blessed Too is turning back in distance off a bias-aided maiden victory in the slowly run Simcoe, a stakes for graduates of local yearling sales. Souper Hot (8) could rebound off a flat fourth in the Simcoe, and I will bet him to win at 6-1 or higher.

I’ll launch the late Pick 4 in the eighth with a single, Alnilah (1), who overcame a troubled trip last time out to win a six-furlong maiden special comfortably. Her appealing 8-1 morning-line price might hold in this six-furlong allowance.

The Grade 3 Durham Cup figures to be a paceless affair. I’m siding with the last two winners of the nine-furlong event, Melmich (1) and Are You Kidding Me (3), along with Florida Won (5).

The 10th, a second-level optional-claiming turf sprint, can probably be pared down to the speedy Kasuga (1), a fresh Delamar (5), and the classy Jennifer Lynnette (6).

In the 11th, Hoochiecoochie Sam (10) should be much lower than his 10-1 morning-line price, because he’s dropping out of a key $10,000 non-winners of two tilt that contained four next-out winners. Colonel Canuck (5) should be a speed threat off a gate-to-wire maiden win going five-eighths for $8,000. Wardo (11) is a longshot possibility with blinkers on.

Pick 4: 1/1,3,5/1,5,6/5,10,11