Gierkink: How I'll play Woodbine for Sunday, Dec. 4

Sunday’s 14-race closing day card at Woodbine is headed by the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes, a 1 3/4-mile marathon.

MELMICH (4), who romped in track-record time in last year’s Valedictory, will be favored to double up. He has been busy traveling this fall, going to Belmont Park to finish second in the Temperence Hill Invitational, and to Santa Anita to run fourth in the Grade 2 Marathon, a taxing schedule which might make him vulnerable. The obvious alternative is the classy veteran ALDOUS SNOW (2), who’s coming off back-to-back long-distance scores, most recently in the allowance prep for the Valedictory. I’ll key Aldous Snow in the opening leg of the pick three that begins in race 9.

Race 10 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for 2-year-olds. First-time gelding IT’S A BREEZE (10), a dropper from open maiden special company is preferred, over ROBUSTIOUS (7) and THIRD MAN IN (1).

I’ll buy out race 11, a wide open first-level allowance, since the likely favorite, ETHANOL (11), might not be able to string together three straight peak performances.

Pick 3 (Races 9-11): 2/1,7,10/All

Woodbine has a low 15 percent takeout on all doubles. The final double of the meet, beginning in race 13, is a $20,000 claimer that can probably be pared down to OUR GABRIELLE (2), GEOCENTRIC (5), NO SOUP FOR YOU (8), KY CAUSEWAY (9), and KAY’S GRACE (12).

MIDNIGHT BREW (8) should win race 14 on a repeat of her last effort, a deceptively good second for $20,000. She’s dropping to a new low to meet $10,000 nonwinners of two opposition, with Gary Boulanger retaining the mount for trainer Francine Villeneuve, a former jockey.

Double (Races 13 and 14) 2,5,8,9,12/8