Gierkink: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 7
FROSTY MARGARITA (8) is the one to fear most in the sixth race, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight dash for New York-bred juvenile fillies.
She looked the part of a winner in midstretch after closing from fourth when debuting at Belmont on July 9 before being overtaken late by Wonderment, who subsequently romped in the $125,000 Lynbrook Stakes with a 74 Beyer Speed Figure.
FROSTY MARGARITA can improve the second time out. Her trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, has a 38 percent strike rate with 2-year-old second-timers in restricted maiden special weight events going back five years, with a return on investment of $1.93. His win percentage with maiden second-timers since the beginning of last year also is good.
I will bypass the other favorites and key FROSTY MARGARITA on top in exactas with five long-priced first-timers: FREQUENTLY (1), CIRCUS LIFE (2), LOUISVILLE FIRST (3), SHE’S ALL READY (4), and LEGEND OF LORELEI (5).
EXACTA (RACE 6): 8/1-5
I also will play a pick three ending on FROSTY MARGARITA. Race 4 favorites WAR RIDE (3) and VINEGAR JOE (7) are logical, and the debuting OUR LUCK (6) is another possibility. I will press the “all” button in the wide-open fifth race.
PICK 3 (Races 4-6): 3,6,7/All/8