GamePlan for August 13, 2022: Picks for Fourstardave, Bold Venture
Likely less said about the Arlington Million, the better, since beautiful Arlington Park grows weeds for no good reason beyond corporate profits while the Million moves to the troubled Churchill turf course.
I’ve had plenty to say about exciting 2-year-old Damon’s Mound, who won’t be favored in the Saratoga Special. He can’t afford to miss the break like he did in his debut and beat the brilliant Gulfport.
Park Avenue can upset Going Global in the Yellow Ribbon, but the no-Lasix issue is a nagging question. And at Woodbine, two Mark Casse-trained longshots in the Trillium, Talbeyah and Inthewinnerscircle, just failed to make the Weekend GamePlan cut.
Fourstardave
There sits Regal Glory at 6-5 on the morning line for the Fourstardave Handicap. I’d take that win price and single the mare in multi-race wagers.
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Chad Brown, as often happens, holds the perfect hand for this Fourstardave. He has Masen, a worthy contender in his own right, to ensure no one shakes loose on an easy lead, while Regal Glory stalks and pounces. Get Smokin seems faster than Masen, though Masen would prefer to go faster than he’s permitted. He’s a horse who pulls hard and has a lot of speed, and you can bet jockey Flavien Prat will keep Masen in range of Get Smokin.
Casa Creed is a wonderful sprinter and a capable miler, too, but I suspect he is bound for a third-place finish behind the two Browns.
At one point, Regal Glory’s fondness for the Saratoga turf stood out among her career accomplishments, and now she’s back on what might be her favorite course after her career hit another level late last year. Thoroughbred trainers often say a lot of nothing in public comments, but if you listen closely to Brown, he’ll subtly tell you some things. For instance, he mentioned regarding Regal Glory that the initial plan was to retire her this past winter, the mare having knocked out her first Grade 1 in the Matriarch. Brown pointedly gave owner Peter Brant credit for deciding to bring Regal Glory back for a 6-year-old campaign, and I expect him to reiterate that point when and if Regal Glory becomes champion female turf horse this year. That’s the reason she’s racing this year, and she’s well on the way to an Eclipse. Beating males in this Grade 1 will give her a big lead in Eclipse consideration, and video of Regal Glory’s recent workouts strongly suggests she is as good now as she was June 10.
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Bold Venture
Initially, it looked to me like the Bold Venture could turn into a fall-apart race, a surplus of pace players entered. But upon further consideration, they might not go all that fast and Nobals could be the speed of the speed.
It’s close to criminal he carries 123 pounds as a 3-year-old and gives a pound here and there to older horses, but Nobals is a superior synthetic-surface sprinter who doesn’t even have to lead if there’s an early pace scrum. The no-Lasix Saratoga turf sprint last month somewhat clouds his form, and I expect Nobals to bounce right back to his best, though likely at a lower price than his morning-line odds. I’m also using Lucky Score, an improving closer at a price, in exotic wagers.
Sorrento
Infinite Diamond was to be the play in the Sorrento Stakes, but the filly was an early scratch from the race.