Front-runners look tempting on Friday card

ARCADIA, Calif. – Although pacesetters have won less than 30 percent of all races this season at Santa Anita, horseplayers generally consider speed a useful attribute. A handful of front-runners will tempt bettors on a quiet Friday program.

A front-running maiden stretching out another furlong, a second-start maiden who produced high speed in his runner-up debut, and a one-turn sprinter trying to stay a two-turn mile rank as top contenders Friday.

In the first couple months of the Santa Anita meet, runners are just 94 of 317 in races where a horse led at every call, a seemingly low 29.6 percent win rate by front-runners.

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But speed usually is an advantage, including examples Friday in races 1, 7, and 8. The card begins with a conspicuous pace play in a 1 1/8-mile turf race for 3-year-old maiden fillies.

Race 1: Tahini stretched to a mile on turf last time, following a pair of nondescript dirt sprints. Two turns on turf made sense, based on pedigree. Tahini is by American Pharoah and produced by an allowance-caliber turf mare.

Tahini set the pace in her initial route, opened up two lengths in the lane, and got worn down by the favorite. She held second in a solid effort. George Papaprodomou trains Tahini, who gets Umberto Rispoli aboard for the second time.

On Friday, Tahini is likely to make the lead in a race short on speed. If the recent course profile continues, Tahini might be gone. Six of the last nine turf races at nine furlongs were won by pacesetters, at every rail setting. The rails are at 30 feet Friday.

To wire the field, Tahini must hold off recent third-place finisher Americandreammaker, who should vie for favoritism, and trouble-prone late-runner Circle of Trust. If the race unfolds as expected, Tahini can wire the field.

Race 7: Known Idea stands out in the six-furlong dirt race for California-bred 3-year-old maidens. His runner-up debut stamps him one of the most probable winners on the card, at corresponding odds. John Sadler trains the colt, who is cutting back by a half-furlong.

Known Idea set a fast pace last out in a similar race. He shook off his pace rivals and got nailed by last-to-first winner Two by Four. With a prep under him, Known Idea and jockey Hector Berrios should be formidable, even though just seven of the 46 races this meet at six furlongs (15 percent) were won by the pacesetter.

Special Club looms an off-the-pace upset candidate and makes his second start after a comeback fourth in a turf route. Special Club has run well sprinting on dirt, adds blinkers, and will produce a late kick.

Race 8: Mubtadaa stretches to a mile on turf in this starter allowance and is the likely pacesetter, following a third-place comeback at six furlongs. Turf miles were kind to closers with the rails out early in the meet, but the profile shifted. The last three turf miles, with the rail at 30 feet, produced two winners that led wire to wire and another who pressed from second.

Frankie Dettori rides Mubtadaa for trainer Vladimir Cerin. His main rivals are Tarantino, Explain This Audit, and Mega Moon.

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