Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Zeebear should get good pace setup on turnback

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:26 p.m. (ET)

The Rick Dutrow entry figures to attract plenty of support since both halves look like contenders. Ten Cent Town (#1) exits a fast N1X allowance victory where he displayed remarkable improvement off the claim for the new barn. However, he did have things working in his favor that day, since the pace was slow and he was able to capitalize on a favorable race flow. I’m skeptical that he can repeat the effort breaking from the inside with other speed signed on. Big Engine (#1A) might have the right running style for the race, but I don’t love that he’s claimed away from David Jacobson, especially leaving that barn at a time when everything seemed to be running well. His good effort makes him a contender, but I’m not sure we’ll see it.

Among the individual betting interests, Be the Boss (#3) is probably the one to beat. He ran very well in that stallion series stakes last time, since he went on a mission after the fleet Today’s Flavor on the far turn and actually took the lead at the quarter pole before fading. He’s had time to recover from what was likely a taxing effort, and now he returns at an appropriate level. He’s another with speed, but he doesn’t need to be controlling the pace.

I think there’s a chance that this pace comes apart, given the presence of key speed horses like Disco Deano (#5), D’ont Lose Cruz (#7), and What’s Up Bro (#8).

The most obvious closer, outside of Big Engine, is Who Hoo That’s Me (#10). There was a time when he would have been pretty formidable in a spot like this. However, he was off for much of 2023, not returning until November of last year. While his two efforts since returning from that layoff haven’t been bad, he just seems to lack the finishing power he used to possess. Now he’s dropping back down, racing for a tag for the first time in his career. I think he can do well here, but I am concerned he’s heading in the wrong direction.

My top pick is Zeebear (#6). This horse might not look like a pure closing sprinter at first glance. He actually contested the pace last time, but that was going a mile, and he doesn’t seem to be at his best going that far. The pace of that race also came apart, so the performance isn’t as bad as it looks. Two races back he was compromised by a slow pace, and his effort prior to that in October gives him a shot here. He’s been ridden successfully from well off the pace in the past, notably once by today’s rider, Eric Cancel, when he turned in one of the best efforts of his career. He figures to fly under the radar as the lesser regarded of two Linda Rice trainees and I think he can get a big piece of this at a price.