Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Vino Samara drops back in for tag after tough trip
Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:23 p.m. (ET)
Suprenant Cocca (#4) is clearly the horse to beat in in this $35k conditioned claimer for fillies and mares. She's earned some of the fastest speed figures in this field and has generally been in solid form since the claim by Mike Maker last year. The problem is that she's returning from a layoff, having not raced since February, and is dropping back in for a tag after being protected in her four prior starts. Maker and the connections only claimed her for $30k, so dropping back down to a similar level makes sense. I am just reluctant to trust a deep closer off this kind of layoff, even as she gets some significant class relief.
Lotus Petal (#2) is one alternative to consider, as she is coming off the best recent performance of anyone in this field. Yet she got a perfect trip to achieve that runner-up result at this level last time, riding the pocket along the rail before angling out smoothly at the quarter pole. She still got run down by the superior Bryant and Cooper, and I'm skeptical that she can be as effective here. She also figures to be a fraction of the price she was last time.
Authenticate Now (#6) is one of the bigger prices I'd consider. She's light on speed figures, but she did have some minor traffic trouble coming to the quarter pole of her last race, and recovered decently to stay on for second. She held her own against a decent rival in Turf Rocket two back, and may not be as overmatched here as it appears at first glance.
My top pick is Vino Samara (#10), who is still seeking her first turf victory after finishing off the board in three prior attempts on this surface. Yet she has run better than it looks in a few of those starts. She contested a fast pace in a race that fell apart when she made her turf debut as a 2-year-old. She then sprinted in her next start on that surface. Between turf starts she did break her maiden in an dirt race rained off the turf, notably the only time she's raced for a tag. She then went back to grass last time in a much tougher allowance race and got a ridiculous wide trip, never getting cover while parked in the three to four path on both turns. She's clearly capable of better than her result that day, and should be far more effective dropping to this level.