Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET) This optional claimer is a highly competitive affair where you can build some kind of case for every runner in the field. The most logical contender is probably Nova Rags (#3). He was in excellent form through the middle of last year despite settling for second in most of his races. There were questions surrounding him when he went to the sidelines in early summer, and returned with a somewhat lackluster effort in November. However, he didn’t get the best trip that day, having trouble at the break and encountering traffic in the stretch. He rebounded last time, showing better tactical speed before taking over in the stretch. Now he’s back at the same level, though he might be encountering a slightly tougher group. He appears to be heading in the right direction and will be tough with his usual good effort. Current form is a major question for two of his main rivals. Swiftsure (#6) was obviously in great form through a stakes attempt in the Forty Niner, where he hung in gamely against some very talented rivals. However, things completely fell apart when he moved back down to this level last time. He seemingly got a good trip setting a moderate pace, but just threw in the towel on the far turn. He’s tough to trust here, and I’m not convinced that the turnback necessarily helps him. I also have some concerns about the form of Factor It In (#2), but it’s not like he ran that badly when last seen in the Dave’s Friend. You do get the sense that a previous version of this horse might have battled on to win that race, but he’s still capable of producing efforts that would be competitive with this field. There isn’t an abundance of speed in this race, so I took a long look at Fluid Situation (#4), one of a few who can be forward. I’m just a little concerned that he’s never run back to his explosive Tampa maiden win in any of his subsequent dirt races. He’s been campaigned exclusively on turf recently. I also don’t view it as a particularly good sign that he’s running here, because John Terranova didn’t take a string to Tampa this winter like he has in the past, so he just doesn’t have any turf options right now. My top pick is Twenty Four Mamba (#5). Some might view this horse as a “last time” type after he won at over 10-1. That price was obviously an overlay, since he had run well in his prior start against allowance company, and had some legitimate excuses prior to that. He had displayed immediate improvement off the claim for Charlton Baker, and it appears he’s now finally gained some consistency. The most recent effort was exceptional, and a repeat of it will beat this field. His 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure stands up to scrutiny, and he earned it the hard way, making the first move into a fast pace that otherwise came apart behind him. I don’t mind a slight turnback, and he’s drawn well towards the outside.