Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Trial and Error can benefit from a more favorable pace scenario

Belmont | Race 6 | Post Time 5:40 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

The two fillies likely to garner the most attention are Stand for the Flag (#2) and My Happy Place (#3), who both exit a seven-furlong maiden event at Saratoga. Stand for the Flag probably ran the better race that day, as she rallied strongly up the inside in a race that featured a fairly slow pace. She improved off the switch to Jason Servis, and she acts like a filly who will appreciate added ground.

Yet I also think My Happy Place could benefit from the stretch-out. This daughter of Tapit is out of My Happy Face, who placed in multiple Grade 1 stakes, ranging in distances from seven to nine furlongs. She showed a ton of promise in her debut, but was not quite as effective second time out. Shug McGaughey tends to take his time with horses like this and it could be that she just needed some experience before delivering on that early promise. However, both main contenders are closers, and I believe a lack of pace in this field could benefit one of their rivals.

TRIAL AND ERROR (#4) has yet to run as fast as the two favorites, but I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer. A slow break cost her any chance in her debut. She took a big step forward second time out at Monmouth, finishing second behind next-out winner Bellera, who notably improved her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 12 points in a subsequent win. Trial and Error had no answer in the stretch, but she had set a very fast pace for the distance. It’s also possible that the rail was bad at Monmouth on July 6, as many riders were attempting to avoid it.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta key box: 4 with 2, 3, 6
Trifecta: 4 with 2, 3 with 2, 3, 6