Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Trail of Gold should relish added ground
Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:05 p.m. (ET)
National Archive (#1) is clearly the horse to beat after improving when stretched out to this 1 3/8-mile distance on turf last time. She had shown some potential early on in her career and was game to break through against New York-bred winners two back. Rather than moving her up into a second-level statebred allowance, Miguel Clement skipped that condition in favor of trying open company last time. He obviously made that decision because they don't card marathon races for New York-breds. She ran well at this distance, getting a pretty good trip overall and saving ground on the turns. She did have to briefly pause in traffic in upper stretch but found room late to finish second best. She'll be tough right back at this level, especially since she possesses the tactical speed to be forward in a race lacking any pace whatsoever.
Midnight Concerto (#3) could be hindered most of all by the lack of pace in this field. She is a deep closer who tends to leave herself with too much to do late in her races. However, she has achieved both career victories over these Aqueduct turf courses and may appreciate moving back downstate after not having much success in Saratoga this summer. The added distance should help her, but I'm just worried that the setup will be against her.
My top pick is Trail of Gold (#7), another New York-bred facing open company here. Ever since she was a two-year-old, she has struck me as a filly who would appreciate whatever added ground she could get. She certainly improved when stretched out to route distances on the turf earlier this year despite not getting ideal trips in a few of those efforts. She's now won two of her last three starts and was pretty unlucky in her loss in the Suzie O'Cain between those victories. She got back on track last time, making a relentless late bid after angling wide on the final turn. Her grinding style should be well-suited to this distance, and her outside post position should give John Velazquez the option to go forward from the gate for early position.