Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Toy Collector better than last result suggests
Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:42 p.m. (ET)
Vino Rouge (#10) is clearly the horse to beat as she seeks to make amends for her last race, in which she crossed the wire first but was legitimately disqualified after drifting out and causing a chain reaction in the stretch. She’s been in solid form throughout her 3-year-old season, running well when second to the talented Oversubscribed in the Wild Applause before getting beaten by some older rivals in a July allowance at Saratoga. She ran her best race last time, making the first move after a wide trip, but caused too much trouble for the result to stand. The problem with her is that she might get another wide trip from this outside draw, and she has to prove she can stretch out an extra furlong. Given that she’s likely to be favored with exposed form, I thought others might offer better value.
Among those who finished behind her on Aug. 16, the one who seems most naturally suited to this distance is Dancing Dean (#5). The daughter of Constitution has great range to her stride and runs like a horse who will relish added distance. The problem is that she lacks early speed so she often has to make up a ton of ground in her races. She did well to run on for minor awards in her last couple of starts, but she got pretty good trips each time. She is one of the few who wasn’t affected by the trouble Vino Rouge caused last time. It’s unclear if there’s enough pace in here to set up a horse with her style, but I would use her underneath.
Another closer who needs some pace to develop is Gold Lightning (#9), who ships in from Kentucky for Brad Cox. She ran well on this circuit as a 2-year-old but never really developed after a successful debut. Her return at Churchill was lackluster but she seemed to take a step forward last time, closing into a moderate pace despite having to swing very wide into the lane. She looks like a horse who should handle added ground, but she does need to keep progressing.
My top pick is Toy Collector (#6), who was one of those hampered by the traffic jam caused by Vino Rouge on Aug. 16. It appeared as if her connections planned to rate her that day even though she had been a front-runner in her two prior starts at Delaware. She was taken to the back of the pack early and ridden conservatively into the stretch, at which point Jose Ortiz found himself buried in traffic following tiring horses. He never really was able to set her down as he just attempted to guide her into a clear path, and then he lost all his momentum when bumped by a rival that had been pushed inward by Vino Rouge. She really didn’t get a chance to run her race that day but she nevertheless earned a career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure. I think she’s capable of better, and I would like to see her revert to more aggressive tactics as Joel Rosario takes over.