Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Toxic Gray capable of better second off layoff

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:38 p.m. (ET)

The key to this race could be the early pace, as the two likely favorites have the same running style. Both Vettriano (#2) and One Nine Hundred (#5) perform best when they are able to secure the early lead. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that the Tom Morley trained 4-year-old One Nine Hundred is slightly faster in the early stages, but Vettriano may get handled more aggressively given his inside post position. Both have the credentials to this race, having earned the fastest recent speed figures in this field. One Nine Hundred arguably has a little more upside as he makes his second start off a layoff. He showed promise during his 3-year-old season and may still be improving. Yet Vettriano has kept strong company in recent starts and always seems to show up with competitive efforts at Aqueduct.
Some may view Mr Skylight (#6) as a possible alternative as he makes his first start off the claim for Joe Sharp and picks up Flavien Prat. He will have to improve upon his recent form, but he did have a legitimate excuse last time when he got clobbered from both sides at the start before rallying into third. He ran races early in his career that would give him a chance here, and perhaps the change of scenery will get him back on track.

My top pick is Toxic Gray (#3), who is another horse with prior races that would give him a serious chance to upset the favorites. He is coming off a poor recent performance when he finished nearly eight lengths behind Vettriano in December. Yet that was his return from an eight-month layoff. He's a horse who has needed to race into fitness in the past, and his trainer Mike Miceli rarely has horses cranked up for their best efforts off the bench. The 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned at this distance back in April puts him squarely in the mix, and he has shown the ability to be effective from a stalking position in the past.