Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Thirteen Red Flags better than last two results
Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:50 p.m. (ET)
The merits of likely favorite Patty Van Twinkle (#4) are fairly obvious. She's been in the best form of her career since getting claimed by Mike Maker this winter, winning a $25,000 conditioned claiming race before twice finishing second at this starter allowance level. She achieved triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in all of those efforts, whereas most in this field have rarely surpassed that threshold. The only question is whether she can maintain that form moving forward. I didn't think she had any significant excuse to lose as the even-money favorite last time, and she got a very favorable trip when she won here three back. She could potentially regress a bit and still beat this field, but I don't view her as the best value option at a particularly short price.
The alternative that many will consider is Street View (#5), who attempts to win her third race in a row while moving up in class. She's been beating weaker company in $25,000 conditioned claiming events, but she won both of those races decisively with the best speed figures of her career. She's been claimed away from a couple of sharp barns, those of Linda Rice and Rob Atras, but new trainer Steven Schauer has had success with his limited starters so far. Street View needs another step forward to win here, but at least there will be a more palatable price than the favorite.
My top pick is Thirteen Red Flags (#7), who figures to get dismissed at much longer odds than those two logical players. She ran a strong race at this level back in December when finishing a close third behind Next On Stage, who would go on to just miss against much tougher open allowance company. She also was hardly disgraced chasing a couple of superior rivals at that same level in January. Her last two performances have obviously been a step backwards, yet the trips didn't work out either time. Her Feb. 15 race was run under snowy conditions, and the surface was biased towards outside paths while Thirteen Red Flags got an inside trip. Last time, she broke a step slowly against a tough New York-bred allowance field and never looked comfortable getting shuffled inside on the turn. Now she draws a much better outside post position and should sit a comfortable stalking trip under Katie Davis.