Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Tabeguache still has upside in Discovery
Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:40 p.m. (ET)
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This Discovery field figures to scratch down to five after Drake’s Passage competed in the Empire Classic last week. That is likely to make Crupi (#2) a strong favorite. This former underachiever seemed to figure things out over the summer, earning an overdue maiden victory at Monmouth before beating winners at Saratoga. That allowance win did come in an off the turf race, but he earned a strong 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort. He subsequently validated that sudden improvement in the Pennsylvania Derby. Taken well back in the early stages, he was making a strong move into contention in mid-stretch, at which point he encountered traffic while attempting to split horses. That trouble probably cost him third in that Grade 1 event, and I would imagine he’s going to be well supported here on the back of that effort.
However, the big flaw with Crupi is his lack of early speed, and there isn’t much pace in this Discovery with such a small field signed on. Army Times (#1) is the most likely leader from the rail, but he’s a one-figure horse, having run his only competitive race against allowance company two back at Monmouth. His Smarty Jones was disappointing, and I’m not sure he’s a horse who gets better with added distance.
My top pick is a runner who figures to be stalking that foe. Tabeguache (#6) has been slow to come around for Brad Cox. He didn’t show much in his first couple of starts for this barn at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but his July 19 victory was a big step in the right direction. He won that race much easier than the margin would suggest, and it set him up for another step forward in the St. Louis Derby last time. He got a good trip tracking the pace, and looked like he was going to settle for second behind stablemate Slip Mahoney before switching leads and finding another gear late. He seems like a the type of horse who should relish 9 furlongs, and I like this outside draw for him.