Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: The switch to turf should help Miss Flambe
Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
I’m not enamored with the horses who are likely to take money in this spot. Ideational (#5) may go off as the favorite considering Chad Brown’s record with first-time starters. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 12 ($4.40 ROI) with debuting New York-bred 2-year-olds in turf routes. This filly actually has plenty of turf pedigree on the dam’s side since her second dam is Coretta, a multiple graded stakes winner who finished second in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. More recently, her dam produced turf winner Brother O’Connell. The problem is that Noble Mission has gotten off to a slow start as a sire, with his progeny winning just one of 52 turf starts.
Those in this field with turf form are not very appealing to me. Plink Freud (#1) earned a strong speed figure in her debut, but I have doubts about the overall quality of that race. She regressed next time out, and I don’t see a ton of evidence that she is supposed to be much better stretching out.
The first-time turfers are more intriguing. One likely to attract support is Winifred J (#10), who has obvious pedigree for this surface. Her dam won both of her turf starts, and her first foal was a turf winner as a 2-year-old. I’m using her, but the one who interests me most is Miss Flambe.
At first glance, MISS FLAMBE (#7) doesn’t appear to have much turf breeding, but it’s worth digging a bit deeper into her pedigree. While her dam did most of her work on dirt, she did win on turf with a solid performance. Most of her progeny have not tried the surface, but she did produce one turf winner. However, I’m most interested in Miss Flambe’s sire, Alpha. I have a hunch that this freshman sire will turn out to be more of a turf influence. Despite being a son of Bernardini, who ran on dirt, Alpha gets plenty of turf breeding from his Nijinsky-sired dam. We’ve already seen a few Alpha-sired 2-year-olds run on this circuit, and a number of them have preferred turf. Miss Flambe ran pretty well in her debut while facing a pair of talented juveniles, and she just got the wrong trip over a rail-biased track last time.
One other filly that I want to include at a big price is Y’allcomenow (#9). Her lone turf start is worth watching, since her jockey did not give her the best of rides and she may be capable of much better with Luis Saez aboard. Don’t leave her out of exotics.
THE PLAY
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,9,10