Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Spungie set for better second off layoff

Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:49 p.m. (ET)

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The four main players in the John Hettinger all exit the Yaddo Stakes at Saratoga, making this an interesting trip handicapping exercise. New Ginya (#2) was the upset winner of the Yaddo at 8-1, and her decisive margin of victory should ensure she goes off a much shorter price this time. Some may regard her as a horse who is simply improving as a 4-year-old, which is certainly possible. She’s won three of her four turf starts this year, and was compromised by a slow pace in the only loss. Yet she was so much with the flow the way the Yaddo unfolded. The Mellon turf course was generally favoring outside paths during the final few weeks at Saratoga, and she made a wide move out in the clear as the race was collapsing to her inside. I don’t think she’s going to get as strong a setup this time, especially with less pace signed on.

Whatlovelookslike (#1) was right on top of the pace that ultimately fell apart that day. She was overbet as the 6-5 favorite, but might have had a valid excuse with the race flow so against her. Her prior form was solid, though she did benefit from favorable circumstances in both her Port Washington and optional-claiming victories two and three back. She figures to run better today, but I would need a more generous price.

My top pick is Spungie (#5). She’s the one who was really compromised in the Yaddo. With the outside paths being preferred, she spent almost the entire race on the rail. She got steadied inside heading into the clubhouse turn after Junior Alvarado had sent for early position and was forced to abandon that plan. She ultimately got through along the inside to make a run in the lane and finished well. Yet the race was otherwise dominated by outside movers, and I think the nature of the course compromised her. That was her first start off an extended layoff, and she figures to be set for a better effort this time.