Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Souzak should appreciate turnback off the layoff
Belmont at the Big A | Race 4 | Post Time 2:12 p.m. (ET)
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I’ll be interested to see how this race develops on the front end, as it feels like there are multiple speeds who don’t necessarily have to be ridden aggressively. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring runners on or near the lead, and I could definitely see that playing out. However, I’m not convinced that this race is as simple as defaulting to a horse like Legends Can’t Die (#2) just because he looks like the fastest early. Legends Can’t Die is coming off a solid return effort on dirt, for which he earned a strong 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He has run well on the turf before, but I can’t say that any of his turf races quite measure up to his two best dirt performances. He figures to be a short price, especially, if stablemate Senbei (#2B) somehow draws in off the also-eligible list. I would prefer that runner between the two in this entry, but I generally try to avoid entries altogether.
The other coupled entry that’s also split between the main body and also-eligible list is the Michael Dubb and partners pair. Run Curtis Run (#1) is the one likely to participate, as he returns from a layoff for his belated 4-year-old debut. He made an impressive run from off the pace to win two back against 3-year-olds, and then got the wrong trip in his 2022 finale, rushing up to contest the pace after a slow break. He's dangerous if he’s ready off the layoff.
Chess Master (#6) might be finding the right class level after being too ambitiously placed first off the claim for new connections in the Harvey Pack. He had run well to win against cheaper foes in his prior start, but has the back class to contend at this level.
My top pick is Souzak (#10). This French-bred was a sprinter on turf in France as a 2-year-old, winning three in a row to conclude his juvenile season. He displayed excellent closing speed to win those two sprints in August and September of last year. Purchased for $392,000 at Arqana Saint-Cloud last year, he debuted for his new connections at Gulfstream, racing in a pair of turf route stakes. Yet those efforts perhaps exposed him as one that doesn’t want to go that far. He traveled keenly in both races, but failed to produce a finish. He’s now been off for a while, but returns for a trainer who does well off long layoffs. Graham Motion is 4 for 17 (24%, $4.35 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf sprints over five years, with 11 of those hitting the board. I’m a little worried about the lack of pace, but I do think this is the right kind of spot for him.