Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Society Man should love added ground
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 12:20 p.m. (ET)
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There’s a case to be made for every runner in this competitive maiden field that opens the card. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown send out two runners each, and all appear to be contenders. Though, I do prefer the Brown duo among the logical favorites. Malarchuk (#2) is arguably the horse to beat based on his 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which he earned for a runner-up debut result behind Moonlight, who would go on to place in a stakes. I am a little concerned that he was entered for turf that day, but he has the kind of pedigree that could go either way with regard to surface. He finished with good interest and is bred to appreciate the distance.
Brown’s other runner Reasoned Analysis (#1) should also appreciate stretching out following an educational debut. He was off slowly and lagged behind early before launching a sustained run through traffic that carried him into fourth behind a dominant winner. He then galloped out well past the wire. He’s supposed to appreciate more ground as a son of Upstart, who wins with 17 percent of his dirt route starters. It’s also interesting that Manny Franco lands here after riding both of these stablemates in their debuts.
I’m a little less enamored with Todd Pletcher’s pair. Eliminate (#6) has taken plenty of money in both starts and figures to attract support again. I’m just not quite convinced he really wants to go this far. Though he’s a son of Curlin, he has more of a sprint pedigree on the dam’s side, and he didn’t seem to finish off his race going this distance last time. Speed Runner (#3), on the other hand, is stretching out with some breeding to go longer. He’s a half-brother to Belmont Stakes third-place finisher Brilliant Speed. I just wish he had shown a bit more on debut in a relatively weak race for the level.
That quartet figures to dominate the wagering, but I’m most interested in one of the bigger prices. Society Man (#5) is another horse stretching out in the second start of his career. He caught an extremely tough field on debut in a loaded Saratoga maiden race won by Valentine Candy. That has been a productive affair, from which multiple horses have since won, improved their speed figures, and even placed in stakes events. Society Man was outrun early and raced greenly towards the back of the pack in a race he likely needed. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding for Danny Gargan, who is 13 for 47 (28%, $2.74 ROI) with maiden second-time starters on dirt over five years, and 6 for 18 (33%, $3.70 ROI) with 2-year-olds within that sample. I love this runner’s pedigree to go longer, being sired by burgeoning stamina influence Good Magic, who gets 19 percent dirt route winners. The dam also won going this nine-furlong distance on dirt. He figures to be a square price, and I project improvement.