Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Snare should relish added distance
Saratoga | Race 10 | Post Time 6:18 p.m. (ET)
This finale might be the toughest race on the entire Friday card. All of the contenders in this one-mile maiden turf event have major questions to answer. That includes possible favorite Johny's Rendezvous (#3), who has steadily improved since returning as a gelding for his 3-year-old season. He earned a field-best 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his narrow defeat last time out at Ellis Park, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough here. However, he does have a tendency to get keen early in his races, and he sometimes struggles to finish. He has to work out a trip under Javier Castellano, who is just 1 for 38 at the meet coming into this week.
Fellow Kentucky shipper Maki Monarchy (#6) got in a local start last time, cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. It seems like that might be a viable option for him since he started out his career sprinting, but he could never keep after getting bumped at the start. He ran well going this one-mile distance two back, and that's proven to be a solid race for the level.
Yet contention runs deep in this race, and there are plenty of wild cards to consider. Favorable Scenario (#4) returns from a 909-day layoff to make his second career start. He has some turf pedigree going back to his second generation female family, but it's hard to trust a horse who has been away for this long, even going out for Chad Brown. Wicked Improbable (#8) ran like a horse that would benefit from his debut experience last month, racing greenly in the early stages before making a wide move into contention. He just needs some pace to develop.
My top pick is a horse who will be trying this distance for the first time. Snare (#1) exits that same July 16 sprint race as Maki Monarchy, but he fared much better, riding the rail to a third-place finish. While his trip generally worked out, I liked the way he lengthened his stride through the lane, closing into third in a race dominated up front. He's been improving since returning from a layoff this summer, and I like that he's now stretching out after getting some sprint foundation underneath him. He's always been bred to go this far, by 16% turf route sire Vekoma out of Keri Belle, who was a Grade 3 winner over a mile. He strikes me as one who needs more ground, and he should be a square price for these low-percentage connections.