Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Smooth Waves has upside following green debut
Belmont | Race 2 | Post Time 1:36 p.m. (ET)
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A pair of speedy fillies are likely to vie for favoritism in this 2-year-old maiden affair, but both will be trying turf for the first time. Permed (#4) seems likely to attract support after leading until the final stages of her debut on dirt last month. She popped out of the gate to the lead before faltering slightly in the final sixteenth. She’s bred to handle turf being by solid influence Street Boss out of a dam who was best on grass. However, you still have to take a short price to find out if she can improve on this surface.
She’s Fire (#3) is the other obvious contender switching surfaces for her second start. Kevin Rice hasn’t had as much success on this circuit as others in the Rice family, but he does well out of town, and it would appear that this filly has been targeted at this race with some intention. She got in a prep at Presque Isle over the synthetic course, and showed good speed before getting overhauled by the favorite. Yet it’s not as if she threw in the towel, as the two of them drew nearly 10 lengths clear of the rest. The turf pedigree isn’t quite as obvious with her, but Jose Ortiz hops aboard and she comes in with one of the fastest speed figures.
I’m most interested in a different second-time starter who should be a slightly better price. Smooth Waves (#2) made her debut on turf last month and could only manage to finish fifth, beaten over six lengths. However, the performance was better than the bare result. She was pretty green through the early stages of that race, seemingly uncomfortable racing among horses. She then got keen approaching the quarter pole and had trouble finding a clear path in the lane. She still finished with good interest all things considered. She also deserves extra credit for making up some ground, since all of the early pace figures for that race are color-coded blue in TimeformUS, indicating a slow pace. DRF Formulator reveals that Mike Maker is 6 for 16 (38%, $5.75 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in turf sprints over five years. I’m expecting a step forward this time.
There are also some first-time starters to consider, but beating all of the experienced runners could be a difficult task. Among those, Sea Dancer (#8) is a half-sister to talented turf performer Johannes and goes out for William Morey, who is capable with firsters. Perhaps most interesting from a value standpoint is Greavette (#10), who attracts Joel Rosario for low-profile connections and impressed breezing 10-flat at the OBS sale earlier this year. I could use both with my top pick.