Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Siege of Boston brings strong form into Knickerbocker

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:16 p.m. (ET)

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The Grade 3 Knickerbocker drew a highly competitive group of runners, many of whom have something to prove. I’m not trying to beat the morning-line favorite Siege of Boston (#7), who will have to transfer his strong allowance form into stakes company. He did try a stakes once prior to this in August at Ellis Park, and ran well with a good trip, just hanging in the late stages. Perhaps 10 furlongs was a bit too far for him. He’s already proven to be effective at today’s nine-furlong distance. Even though he lost his most recent start at Kentucky Downs, I thought he closed well for second behind a freakish performance by winner Saratoga Flash. That was his second TimeformUS Speed Figure of 120 or higher in his last three starts, which puts him a cut above many of his rivals. Jimmy Toner is the midst of an excellent season, and jockey Jorge Ruiz has developed a good rapport with this colt.

His main rival is probably Pioneering Spirit (#8), but he has to bounce back from a poor effort in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Perhaps he just didn’t want the 12-furlong distance over yielding ground, since he also ran a slightly subpar race in the Sword Dancer under similar conditions this summer. Yet he was finished a long way from home last time, and it’s fair to wonder if a hard campaign is finally taking its toll.

Rockemperor (#5) and Master Piece (#6) both have the back class to beat a field like this. The former did at least put forth a competitive effort last time at Woodbine, but he was supposed to win against a weaker group than this. Master Piece is a little more appealing, since he got an uncharacteristically aggressive ride last time in the Arlington Million. He has been effective going this shorter distance before, but the pace of this race could work against him.

I suppose last year’s winner, King Cause (#2), is a threat to wire the field given the lack of pace signed on. Once again, he has tactical speed from an inside post position with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. I don’t like his recent form, but trips could be important in this spot.