Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Rosie P is an intriguing longshot in her turf debut

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Most of the speed in this race figures to come from the outside post positions. The logical front-runner to include is Nisha (#13), who surprised at more than 7-1 when winning last time in wire-to-wire fashion. That win came against a softer group than the one she meets today, but she did it in a fast time and deserves respect here. Her main rivals appear to be closers.

Sister Sophia (#8) has been rounding back into form for new trainer Jorge Abreu, and recent maiden winner China Rider (#1A) should appreciate getting back into a turf sprint. I think they're the two closers to use, but I think this race could produce an odd result.

ROSIE P (#12) is the kind of longshot whom I like to throw into my wagers. No, she is not the most likely winner of this race by any stretch, but I nevertheless want to highlight her as a horse who could offer significant value in exotics. She has the look of a filly who could really move up with this switch to turf. Her dam was a turf winner, and she is a half-sister to two turf winners, including one sired by negative turf influence Jump Start. Rosie P is by Girolamo, a 13 percent turf sire who has gotten his fair share of turf sprinters from his first few crops. I think it's notable that her best race came over a sloppy, sealed track, which is sometimes conducive to horses with turf ability. Furthermore, trainer Kelly Breen gets a 94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with turf sprinters and a 100 Rating when riding Paco Lopez.

THE PLAY

Win/place: 12

Exacta key box: 12 with 1, 2, 8, 13

Trifecta: 1, 8, 13 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 13 with 12