Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Ridgewood Runner's recent form stronger than it appears
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:14 p.m. (ET)
War Stride (#6) figures to be a clear-cut favorite in this second-level allowance. This gelding didn't look like the type that would be competitive in a race at this level when he was competing in claiming races over the winter at Aqueduct, yet he has clearly improved a great deal over the last several months, entering this race off the two best performances of his career. He was a convincing winner against first-level allowance competition two back and then progressed further last time, finishing second to the classy Baby Yoda at a higher level than this. He drew the rail in both of those races and had to be used for early position. Now he gets a more favorable outside post position and is reunited with winning rider Flavien Prat. He's the horse to beat, but the one knock against him is that his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures don't give him much of an edge over a few of his key rivals in this race.
Shadow Dragon (#4) and Magnolia Midnight (#5) will both attempt to turn back in distance after going a mile in most of their recent starts. Shadow Dragon is returning from a brief freshening, but he's been working consistently over the past two months so it doesn't appear that he had any major issues. He was content to settle for minor awards last year, but he's now won two of his last three starts and has gained a bit more tactical speed since the addition of blinkers. Magnolia Midnight could play out as the main speed, but he's usually more comfortable setting slower paces going longer than this.
My top pick is Ridgewood Runner (#3), who figures to be the biggest price in this compact field. He's depicted in mid-pack on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, but he has more early speed than that forecast suggests. He hasn't gotten ideal trips in a few of his recent starts, getting squeezed back at the start or outrun early in some faster-paced affairs. Connections took the blinkers off last time and he again was outfooted early, but he seemed to settle better on the turn before launching a strong rally into a fast pace. He has faced tougher fields than this in almost all of his recent starts and now lands in a spot where he should have more of an opportunity to attain his preferred forward position. He won at this level as recently as February, and I don't think he's regressed as much as his recent results would indicate.