Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Returning Fierce Scarlett’s form is stronger than it appears

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Two of the major players, Windfall Profit (#2) and Eye of a Soldier (#5), exit the same pair of races at Belmont. Windfall Profit arguably ran the better race two back on Sept. 18 when she was rated behind a slow pace and forced to make a wide move into contention before flattening out. However, I would say that Eye of a Soldier may have run the superior race last time despite losing to her rival by a neck. There was no pace signed on in that Oct. 25 affair and Eye of a Soldier just ran off on the lead, setting a faster pace than her connections intended. We’ll see if either one can work out the right trip this time, but both appear to have the ability to win at this level.

I’m using them, but I prefer their older rival FIERCE SCARLETT (#8). The layoff is obviously a concern, but few in this game are better than Chad Brown in these situations. Over the past 5 years, he is 23 for 66 (35%, $2.25 ROI) with 4-year-old and up horses returning from 120 to 240 day layoffs in turf routes at NYRA. A quick glance at this filly’s form may lead some to speculate that she never progressed from early in her 3-year-old season, but I think that would be a mistake. She ran much better than it appears in both starts at Belmont in the fall of 2019, as she was badly compromised by a slow pace three back and then got a poor ride two back on Oct. 26. Her lone performance of 2020 wasn’t quite as encouraging, but she ran during a time this past spring when Chad Brown’s horses weren’t performing up to expectations at Churchill Downs. Now she’s reunited with Irad Ortiz and lands in a race that should feature a fair pace.

THE PLAY

Win: 8

Exacta key box: 8 with 2, 5, 9

Trifecta: 8 with 2, 5 with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10