Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Over and Ollie returns to what he does best
Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:09 p.m. (ET)
I had a tough time setting a morning line for this race because all of the main contenders have significant flaws. Tuscan Sky (#8) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field on his best day, but his connections have struggled to coax that top form out of him in recent starts. He does appear to working well here and he picks up Flavien Prat, which should attract some support. I just find him difficult to trust at a distance this short.
Raise the Bar (#5) will also take money as he makes his second start since a trainer switch to Chad Brown. His reputation is primarily built on form from Texas and Oklahoma, and he didn't show much improvement in his first start for Brown. The good news for him is that the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that he could be alone in front this time, which obviously makes him dangerous. However, I do think there are a couple of rivals who could apply pressure early.
One of those is T Kraft (#7), who won three races in a row over this track in early 2025. He subsequently got thrown into the deep end of the pool, trying Grade 1 company in the Woody Stephens last summer. He was hardly disgraced, beating over half the field home, though he didn't run quite as well in the Amsterdam subsequently. He received time off after that, and got in a useful prep on turf off the layoff last time. He's now returning to his favorite surface and is drawn well outside of other speed.
My top pick is Over and Ollie (#6), who is clearly good enough to beat this field on his best day. The problem is that his best days have been few and far between, scattered among several dismal performances over the last year. His last victory did come over this course and distance last December, and he also in an impressive victory at this sprint distance last July at Saratoga. Notably, those were the only two races with Lasix that he actually completed during the last year, losing his rider at the start of another, and he gets to use that medication again this time. He's also had some excuses for the recent poor efforts, racing wide against a rail bias two back before trying a distance that is too far for him last time. I'm expecting him to rebound.