Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Nova Rags exits bias-compromised trip

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET)

Bill Mott holds a strong hand in this optional claimer, sending out two runners, including the likely favorite. American Monarch (#3) moves up in class slightly after clearing his N2X allowance condition last time out. That was just his second start since returning from a 19-month layoff. He ran like a horse who needed his return race, which would be expected after all that time away. Yet he seemed to be back to the best version of himself last time, stalking a moderate pace before taking over in the stretch and gamely holding on to the wire. A repeat of that performance makes him a contender here, but the waters get a little deeper this time.

One of his main rivals, Joey Freshwater (#2) makes that same move up in class after winning a different N2X allowance last time. That was his first start since a layoff dating back to last summer, so he has a right to move forward here. However, he got an absolutely perfect trip last time, sitting just behind an overmatched front-runner before inheriting the lead.

The David Jacobson entry of Spun and Won (#1) and He’smyhoneybadger (#1A) also figure to attract support. I prefer He’smyhoneybadger, who possesses dangerous tactical speed in a race that appears to lack early pace. His form since the claim by Jacobson has deteriorated, but he ran well for Rob Atras when last seen on this circuit, and the Jacobson runners generally raise their game upon returning to New York.



My top pick is that other Mott entrant. Nova Rags (#4) comes off a disappointing result at this level, checking in fifth as the 8-5 favorite. He already cleared this level two back on Dec. 19, but was eligible to try it again last time and Friday due to a technicality in the condition. While that Jan. 12 effort appears to be a regression, he didn’t run nearly as bad as it seems when considering the track profile that day. The rail path seemed to be a significant disadvantage during that racecard, one of many days during the past month that has produced a track bias. Nova Rags was reserved off the pace and guided down to the rail soon after the start. He proceeded to race in the inside paths into the lane and couldn’t muster a rally while all the significant running was done outside. I’m confident he’s better than that, and I expect him to rebound if the track is playing fairly Friday.