Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mistical Curlin poised to win second in a row

Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (ET)

A couple of the likely favorites in this second-level allowance/optional claimer exit the June 7 Saratoga race won so impressively by Arthur’s Ride. Perform (#5) was the closest pursuer at the wire, crossing the line nearly 13 lengths behind the winner. After a bump at the start, he got a very good trip, saving ground before rallying into second. The 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive here, but that was a strange race featuring large gaps at the wire, and multiple horses who failed to show up with their best efforts.

Donegal Forever (#7) is one of those who was beaten by a substantial margin, though he had some excuse, stumbling at the start before racing wide throughout. I still haven’t been thrilled with any of his efforts since returning from a layoff this past winter at Gulfstream. He looked so full of promise in his debut victory last year, but it appears he may not have moved forward since then.

Unlike that pair, Power Seeker (#4) is stretching out in distance. There isn’t much pace in this race, with the TimeformUS Pace Projector actually characterizing this as a No Speed scenario. Power Seeker is shown leading after a half-mile, even though he’s not exactly a typical front-runner. He ran well behind the classy Artorius last time, and could be effective here if he gets an aggressive ride going this distance.

The new face in this lineup is Archie the Giza (#1), who was in great form earlier this season, upsetting a strong allowance field at Oaklawn before finishing a solid third in the Grade 3 Ben Ali two back. I am bothered by his last race, which was extremely disappointing, but he would fit well here if he can bounce back to form.

My top pick is Mistical Curlin (#2), who attempts to win his second start in a row. In a race where a lot of horses seem tough to trust, the 5-year-old just feels like the reliable option. He’s proven at the distance, and he’s run plenty of speed figures against weaker competition that make him fast enough to win at this level. It did take him several starts to break through his N1X condition. However, he had valid excuses two and three back, breaking through the gate prior to the start on March 9 before getting off to a poor beginning on April 6. He’s been gradually improving since his return from a winter layoff, and he finally delivered a comfortable victory last time when working out a good trip. He figures to get another favorable ground-saving journey here from his inside draw.