Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Metfardeh can rebound from outside draw

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:25 p.m. (ET)

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this allowance optional claimer, sending out the two likely favorites. Inefficiency (#4) seems like the horse to beat coming off a 6-length debut win for which she earned a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She picks up Flavien Prat, who should make use of her ample early speed in a race that doesn't feature much pace. The drawback is that Chad Brown doesn't have particularly strong statistics with these types. Over the last 5 years, he is 2 for 25 (8%, $0.24 ROI) with 4-year-old and older debut winners making their second career starts, and 0 for 14 in dirt races within that sample.

I still prefer her to her stablemate Filly Freedom (#2), who returns from a brief layoff. She was no match for a better group in the Grade 2 Mother Goose when last seen, so I can excuse that effort. I'm just not thrilled with her prior form, since she took advantage of a rail bias against a very weak field when she broke her maiden.

I'm Buzzy (#5) is mildly interesting first off the claim for Linda Rice, but I wish there was a little more pace in here to set up her late run. I do like her turning back slightly to this one-turn mile.

The horse I really want to bet is Metfardeeh (#6). She was disappointing in her first attempt against winners last time, but she was trying to stretch out to 9 furlongs and it didn't seem like the added distance really worked for her. She had broken her maiden going a mile with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure and I believe that's a better representation of her ability. Notably that's the only prior race in which she did not draw the rail post position until this spot, where she again drew the far outside post. She seems like a filly who does her best running outside of horses, and she figures to get her preferred trip this time.