Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mascarello is in better form than it appears

Belmont Park | Race 4 | Post Time 2:34 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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The two runners to fear in this spot are Hello Holiday (#5) and Escape Velocity (#8). The former has disappointed in his last two starts against N1X allowance company, but now he’s getting a realistic drop in class. Escape Velocity has been tried on the dirt in each of his last two starts, but now gets back to what appears to be his preferred surface. He was facing better horses in his last grass start back in July, but he didn’t do that much running. I think both of these horses can be defeated at short prices.

My top pick is MASCARELLO (#9).

I know that he’s not really a winning type at 1 for 21 lifetime, but only seven of those starts have come on turf, which is obviously his best surface. He ran exceptionally well two back, making the first move into a fast pace that fell apart. Then last time he was racing in tight quarters for much of the stretch drive and had no clear path until the final sixteenth of a mile. He would have finished much closer that day with an outside run. He appears to be in great form right now, and this distance is perfect for him.

THE PLAY

Win: 9

Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,8

Trifecta: 9 with 5, 8 with ALL