Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Magnolia Midnight gets better pace setup

Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:08 p.m. (ET)

Magnificent Mile (#3) may be the horse to beat on the class drop after he tried tougher first-level allowance competition in his last two starts. He ran especially well going this distance two back, pressing a fast pace before fading behind the sharp Treaty Obligation, who was winning his third in a row. He got off to a slow start last time but ran on well for fourth in another tougher field. This is the right level, but I don’t necessarily love that he has to stretch back out to a mile, which may be slightly too far for him.

The Chris Englehart entry figures to take some money with Alternate Reality (#1) being the stronger of the pair. He was a former Englehart trainee who was claimed from the barn. Englehart dipped back in to reacquire him two back, and moved him up to this level last time where he finished second to one of today’s rivals. The 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned makes him a player here, but now he hasn’t been seen in two and a half months. He was a regulatory vet scratch on Dec. 12, so I wonder if he can hold his form.

Midnight Trouble (#5) produced a winning performance at this level back in May, earning a career-best 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort makes him one of the top contenders in this spot, but he hasn’t quite run back to that performance since. He now makes his first start off the claim for Mitch Friedman, who isn’t known for this move, so the price should be generous. I’m just concerned that he might not get the right pace setup.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that Magnolia Midnight (#4) should enjoy a clear early lead here, and that should make him particularly dangerous. This horse runs his best races when he’s able to control the fractions up front, something he was able to do in his Nov. 8 victory at this level when he beat Alternate Reality. He’s had two disastrous outings since then, but the excuses are pretty clear. He lost the rider at the start of his last race, so that clearly doesn’t matter. Prior to that, he was facing a much tougher field and encountered a sloppy track that he’s always detested. He figures to get back on fast going Friday, and his early speed should put him in position to control this from start to finish.