Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Magic Beach should improve turning back second off the layoff

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:07 p.m. (ET)

There is very little dirt form to dissect in this maiden claiming finale at Aqueduct. The horse with the largest recent body of work on dirt is Big Ego (#8), but he’s awfully tough to trust after disappointing at short prices in most of his recent starts. He just has problems finishing off his races and his recent form appears to be heading in the wrong direction.

The horse to beat might be Big Rich (#4), who hasn’t ever been particularly competitive on dirt, but all of his prior starts on this surface have come against much tougher company. That was especially true when he achieved his best result, a third-place finish behind subsequent Louisiana Derby third-place finisher Tuscan Gold last winter. He switched to the Jeremiah Englehart barn last time and didn’t make much of an impact, but that was on turf. Now he’s making his first main track start for the new barn, and is dropping down to a much softer class level.

Judge Rules (#5) has also run some solid dirt races in the past, including a string of TimeformUS Speed Figures in the 80s for Rudy Rodriguez earlier this year, all achieved at the maiden special weight level. I’m not exactly sure why he made 6 consecutive starts on the turf after that, since he didn’t seem to improve much on grass. However, now he’s getting back on dirt and dropping in class. I just worry about the slight turnback to 7 furlongs for a horse who can be fairly one-paced.

My top pick is Magic Beach (#3), who will try dirt for the first time after two prior starts on grass. He made his debut over a year ago at Saratoga, and took some money to get bet down to 5-1. He ran like a horse who needed the experience, as is the case for most Linda Rice first time starters. It took him nearly 14 months to get back to the races, and he made his return stretching out to two turns on turf last month. He broke very sharply and showed decent early speed chasing a quick pace before fading. His pace-upgraded 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a strong fit here, and he should have gained some needed fitness from that comeback effort. The chief question is the switch to dirt, but he is by Omaha Beach, whose progeny win a strong 20% of their dirt sprints, and it’s not as if his dam’s side is overly turf-oriented. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed in this field, and he figures to get an aggressive ride.