Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Luca On Point should improve on green debut effort

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:08 p.m. (ET)

Favoritism in this maiden event could go to Exploration (#8), the lightly raced $900k yearling purchase. He debuted at Fair Grounds last winter for the Brad Cox barn, making a big far turn move to reach the leaders in upper stretch before hanging late. He was then off for most of the year, only returning last month at Parx for new trainer Brittany Russell. He again was sluggish in the early stages but made some progress into the stretch, and continued to run on to just miss. However, he did have dead aim at the winner and never got by that foe even on the gallop-out, suggesting he has some hang in him. This son of Curlin is out of a half-sister to Grade 1-winning dirt router Tara's Tango, so the distance isn’t supposed to be a problem. Brittany Russell is 11 for 36 (31%, $1.94 ROI) with maidens stretching out for the first time on dirt over five years.

Stronsino (#5) ran some decent races for Steve Asmussen last spring at Oaklawn, picking up a couple of minor awards in dirt routes before fading at Churchill. He missed the summer, and got sold at auction for $80k in August. He made his first start for new trainer Jamie Ness last month, utilizing a ground-saving trip to get up for third in a fast race for the level. He shouldn’t mind stretching out to a mile here, and may have some upside in his second start off the layoff. I trust him slightly more given the recency.

My top pick is Luca On Point (#3). This Chad Brown trainee was ignored at 15-1 on debut against a pretty tough field. He ran like a horse who badly needed the experience, as he was away awkwardly and struggled to keep up at the back of the pack early. He never passed a rival but was staying on decently across the wire, finishing only five lengths behind the third-place finisher. That form was flattered when winner Masmak returned to win again, beating a tough allowance field in his next start. Brown is an impressive 41 for 131 (31%, $2.10 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in dirt routes over five years, and he is 11 for 26 (42%, $3.62) so far in 2024. He adds blinkers and should be capable of a better effort this time.