Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Leftembehind capable of better second off the layoff
Saratoga | Race 4 | Post Time 2:01 p.m. (ET)
This starter allowance early on Friday is one of the most wide open races on a fantastic card. Lucency (#9) and Debate (#8) could vie for favoritism after finishing second and third, respectively, in a similar spot at Aqueduct in early May. However, neither one is especially formidable. Lucency had no excuse to lose last time after getting a great trip, and now has to hold his form for a low-profile barn. Debate will appreciate this turnback, but has still been a mild disappointment since the claim by Linda Rice.
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, showing recent maiden winner Boss Tweed (#7) leading the field early. Among the likely pace players, I’m more interested in Notah (#4), who was unable to make the lead breaking from the rail last time. He was off a step slow and tried to rush up before settling into a stalking trip. That pace was pretty fast and he did well to battle on for second in a race from which the first and third-place finishers have both returned to run well.
There does appear to be enough speed to set things up for a closer. One late runner to consider is Proven Hope (#5), who has been in career-best form since switching into the barn of Ed Barker. He’s been racing over longer distances recently, but probably found the 1 1/8 miles to be a little too far last time, especially after going four wide around both turns. He figures to save more ground with Trevor McCarthy taking over.
My top pick is Leftembhind (#11). This gelding took a big step forward at Saratoga last summer, following up his maiden victory with a couple of significantly improved speed figures against allowance foes. He continued his rise on the turf, getting elevated to second in a statebred allowance when mildly affected by some stretch traffic last fall. He concluded his season back on dirt, missing by less than a length going this distance despite racing five wide and trying to close into a slow pace. He came off a layoff last time and got a terrible trip on the turf, again compromised by a dawdling pace while going four wide around both turns. He’s better than those recent results indicate, and I believe he can continue his progression here. He thrived up in Saratoga last year, and shows a bullet workout for the return to dirt.