Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Kathrynmarissa should benefit from added distance
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 12:50 p.m. (ET)
You can make a legitimate case every runner in this 5-horse field that opens the Friday card. Rarely do I set morning lines that are this closely grouped – all runners between 5-2 and 7-2 – but this race does appear to be that competitive.
Though there is a chance Weather Delay (#3) is aptly named with snow predicted in the forecast for Friday, she figures to vie for favoritism in this spot if this card goes forward as planned. The $500k yearling purchase is a daughter of excellent route influence Curlin out of a dam who was a two-time Grade 1 winner on dirt during her career. The pedigree obviously says this one should be a runner, but her works appear to be fairly ordinary and Todd Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong statistics debuting horses in dirt routes.
Among her more experienced rivals, Pin Up Betty (#1) and Just Music (#2) have earned the best speed figures. I would give slight preference to the former, who was headstrong in her early races in Kentucky, running off to clear leads in two prior route attempts at Churchill Downs before tiring late. She got fractious in the gate last time at Turfway and was slowly away, but did well to pass rivals through the stretch. It’s possible that she’s moving in the right direction, and her speed makes her dangerous from this inside draw.
There are a couple of second time starters to consider. Experimental (#4) took some money on debut, but was outrun every step of the way sprinting 6 furlongs, climbing greenly through the early stages of that race. She figures to appreciate the added ground, but she will have to run significantly faster than that 66 TimeformUS Speed Figure to compete with this group.
My top pick is the other second time starter Kathrynmarissa (#5). She didn’t take any money on debut in December, indicating that she likely needed that race. She was also facing a much better field of maidens and is surely be getting some subtle class relief in this spot. She hit the gate and was towards the back early before traveling well into the race on the far turn. Jose Gomez had some trouble finding a clear path for her approaching the quarter pole and she seemed to get discouraged late after running through kickback. I expect her to move forward from that performance for Richard Dutrow, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders over the last few months in New York.