Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Just Katherine has upset chance in Wilton

Saratoga | Race 4 | Post Time 2:52 p.m. (ET)

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Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand here, sending out the two morning-line favorites. However, I’m not thrilled with either one of his fillies at short prices. Both are exit disappointing efforts in the Acorn, which did turn out to be a race of quality, with Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous earning another Grade 1 victory. Randomized (#5) was coming off a bit of a layoff that day, so perhaps she needed a start. Yet I didn’t like the way she was unable to keep pace early before retreating. She did earn an eye-catching speed figure when she won her maiden, but I’m still somewhat skeptical of that race and need to see more evidence that she’s actually quite that good.

Accede (#4) was perhaps a bigger disappointment in the Acorn, since she got a good stalking trip, cut the corner, and still backed up. I have doubts that she really wants route distances, and I’m also somewhat skeptical of her top speed figure, earned in the Eight Belles. That’s proven to be a negative key race.

Looking beyond the favorites, Sacred Wish (#3) makes sense as an alternative. She stayed on well for second after a wide trip in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and then had an excuse in the Black Eyed Susan. Given her trip, she was probably supposed to win that allowance race last time, but she was beaten by a good horse in 4-year-old Sunset Louise. She fits here with a repeat of that effort. Yet looking back at that race, I don’t want to dismiss the filly who finished right behind her.

Just Katherine (#1) wasn’t as suited by the race flow of that June 16 affair as she was trying to close in a race dominated by the front-running winner. Yet I really liked the way she traveled to the quarter pole and kept trying through the wire. She was an overachiever at Gulfstream this winter and seems to have continued her progression in New York. This barn has shipped a small stable up north but has had success both here and at Monmouth despite sending out big prices. She’s going to be the longshot here, and I think she’s far from impossible in a race that might be much more competitive than it appears at first glance.