Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Inherent Promise should appreciate switch to turf

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:16 p.m. (ET)

TimeformUS PPs are now available on drf.com. Go to shop.drf.com and use coupon code NYRATF23 to get one free TimeformUS card.

Tom Collins (#1) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his second start on turf. He didn’t show much on debut, but took a big step forward with the switch to grass last time, as his pedigree would suggest. He’s out of a dam who is stakes-placed on turf and he’s a half-brother to turf stakes-placed Passing Out. He got a pretty good trip in that September turf start last time, saving ground early before having to alter course a couple of times in the stretch. I wouldn’t say that cost him the race, since he probably wasn’t beating much-the-best winner Agate Road. Yet he does figure to benefit from that experience and he’s drawn well again here.

I’m not as thrilled with some others who have turf experience. Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners. Irad Ortiz is named on Midnight Council (#9), who was never involved as the even-money favorite on debut at Monmouth. Perhaps he needed that start, but he has to run a lot better here with blinkers added. Walley World (#10) got a pretty good trip on debut in the same race Tom Collins exits until it all went wrong in the stretch. He reacted badly to a left-handed crop and veered out dramatically, fouling foes. That said, I’m not sure how much ability either one of these Brown runners possesses.

Among the firsters, Message of Hope (#5) and Fred George (#11) both have appealing European pedigrees for this kind of spot. Richard Dutrow doesn’t have the strong resume of Christophe Clement with first time starters on grass, but he can be dangerous with all kinds of runners. I would use them both in any exotic wagers.

My top pick is first time turfer Inherent Promise (#3). I’ve been waiting for this expensive colt to get on the turf since his debut, which was rained off the grass at Saratoga. He didn’t take much money that day, and probably needed the start. Constitution is a solid turf influence, getting 14% turf route winners. The dam never won in a few grass attempts overseas and has only produced two other winless foals. Yet the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and synthetic specialist Smiling Tiger, G1 Del Mar Debutante winner She’s a Tiger, and turf stakes winner Smiling Causeway. This colt strikes me as a runner who will really appreciate getting on turf based on his action. Bill Mott adds blinkers and he drew a good post position with an underrated turf rider aboard.