Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Il Miracolo looks like lone speed in the Curlin

Saratoga | Race 4 | Post Time 2:52 p.m. (ET)

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Blazing Sevens (#3) is obviously the one to beat in this Curlin as he drops in class out of a narrow loss in the Grade 1 Preakness. A repeat of the 118 Timeform Figure that he earned for that effort would probably make him too tough for this field to handle. However, I think it’s important to remember that this year’s Preakness was one of the weakest Triple Crown events in recent years. Blazing Sevens also got a great trip stalking a slow pace, getting first run ahead of Kentucky Derby winner Mage. His prior form doesn’t exactly make him a standout against this field, and I’d be reluctant to take too short a price on him.

Scotland (#4) is the one many will consider to be his main rival. This gelding has run well in all three starts, falling just a nose shy of being undefeated. He tends to cut it pretty close every time and makes hard work of his races, but he’s usually finishing well at the end. He will have to prove that he can get this added distance, which is no guarantee being out of a dam that was best sprinting. I expect him to try hard as usual, but I just wonder if this is the right spot. Both of these horses make sense, but I think they’re beatable at short prices.

Il Miracolo (#5) could be the biggest price of the five runners in this field, and I believe he has a serious chance to cause the upset. The TimeformUS Pace Projector appropriately gives this race the No Speed designation, since there isn’t a consistent front-runner in the field. Yet one of those horses depicted sharing the lead is Il Miracolo, and I have to think his connections will be looking to control this on the front end. He used front-running tactics to achieve his two prior victories. Il Miracolo obviously wasn’t as successful in the Grade 1 races that surrounded that effort, but he got a tough trip in the Florida Derby and then was steadied at the start of the Belmont Stakes before getting rank under restraint. This time he figures to get things his own way up front, and he gets a big rider upgrade to Luis Saez.