Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Highweight shouldn’t deter Durante

Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:18 p.m. (ET)

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Durante (#4) was assigned the top weight in this Grade 3 Fall Highweight handicap, but that shouldn’t deter the 4-year-old gelding, who has been in fantastic form since the summer. He’s won 5 of his last 6 starts, most of those victories coming since he was transferred into the David Jacobson barn. He was arguably a little unlucky in his lone loss during that streak two back when unable to overcome a pace duel in the slop. He then turned around just 13 days later, and got back to his winning ways in the Bold Ruler, outdueling pace rivals who were ultimately beaten by 6 and 28 lengths. While he hasn’t posted TimeformUS Speed Figures that are quite as high as a few of his rivals, his consistency and determination make him hard to deny in this spot. It also helps that he drew outside of his main pace rival.

That’s the major knock against Rotnkee (#2), who would obviously be dangerous if he were able to repeat the 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for winning the Hudson last time. He was a convincing winner that day, fending off early challenger Today’s Flavor, who faded last time, before holding off the closers. Yet he was able to get his preferred outside stalking trip in that spot, and now he figures to be under the gun from an inside post position.

The wild card with regard to the pace scenario is Win for Gold (#5), who ran a career-best race in the Hudson. Expected to be challenging for the lead, he tossed his head at the start and was off about 5 lengths behind the field. Yet he adapted his running style to make a closing move into contention at mid-stretch before flattening out. It was a big step forward for a horse ascending out of softer allowance races. The question now is whether he makes use of that newfound dimension to rate behind horses, or goes back to his previous front-running style.

If the pace heats up, it will suit Bold Journey (#1). He got the right setup when he won an optional claimer two back, just getting his nose in front at the wire. He seems to be back in top form after a turf experiment earlier this year. He does seem to run his best races at Aqueduct, but he has to prove that he can be as effective at the stakes level.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring Durante, and I tend to agree that he’s mostly likely to work out the right trip, given his post position and ability to race on the lead or from a stalking position. If it turns into a test of will down to the wire, I have confidence in him to fend off a trio of rivals who have all been fainthearted at times.