Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Grand Sonata should be tough to beat on the class drop
Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET)
This allowance optional claimer looks like one of the most competitive races on the Friday card. You could see from my ML that I really wasn’t sure who might go favored in this affair. Big Everest (#10) figures to attract some support based on his undefeated record at Aqueduct, which includes 3 stakes victories going this one-mile distance on the inner turf. He did show a new dimension in the Artie Schiller last fall, rating behind the leaders before rallying to victory. However, he’s generally been a horse that is best when he can clear off to the lead, and that’s unlikely to happen in a race that features plenty of speed drawn to his inside. Even if Dylan Davis decides to rate this time, he runs the risk of racing wide without cover, which might activate this gelding’s headstrong tendencies. He’s not for me.
I view Grand Sonata (#4) as the most likely winner of this race, and believe he would offer value if he is indeed a similar price to that aforementioned rival. While he hasn’t done much winning over the last year, his lone victory last summer did come when dropped down to this level at Saratoga. After that, he had no chance going 1 1/2 miles in the Turf Classic. He then ran better than the result might indicate in the River City after working out an uncomfortable trip, forced to alter course and weave through traffic in the stretch. He also ran fine at Gulfstream when last seen, just running out of real estate in a race dominated up front. Now he returns in a logical spot and is drawn well towards the inside. He’s the top pick.
The only other horse that really interests me is Turf King (#3). He had some minor trouble at the quarter pole when settling for third in the Jersey Derby last summer before winning a stakes on synthetic. He returned from a lengthy layoff this winter at Gulfstream in a tough spot. He didn’t do much running that day, but he also didn’t have much of a chance after getting held up in traffic at the quarter pole. He has a right to move forward second off the layoff, but he does have to improve so I would want to demand a price around the ML odds.
The other logical contender is Pioneering Spirit (#1), who might just be racing into fitness for Linda Rice, as he did last year before reeling off 4 consecutive victories. His Fort Marcy was a step in the right direction, and he should be able to revert to his preferred closing tactics this time.