Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:48 p.m. (ET)  Turf season gets underway this week at Aqueduct, but it's actually one of Friday's four dirt contests that might be the most competitive race on the card. There's no clear favorite in the sixth race, which goes as a first-level New York-bred allowance over 1 1/8 miles. Only the two rivals who bookend this field are coming off victories, and they figure to attract support by virtue of those recent wins. Ez Roll (#1) beat a weaker statebred starter allowance field last time, but he does appear to have come to hand since switching back to dirt for Ray Handal this winter. The added distance is a question mark, but he has negotiated two turns on turf successfully in the past. Probability (#8) is the other horse exiting a victory, but he just broke his maiden last time out and did so against a pretty soft field for the level. He goes out for a barn that has been in the midst of a strong season so far, but he probably needs to improve on his recent form to win from the far outside post here. I’m more intrigued by a couple of longshots. One of those is Smilensaycheese (#7), who has never gone this far before. He's been fairly inconsistent throughout his career and that trend has continued for his current barn. However, he did earn a speed figure that puts him squarely in the mix two back, and he finishes like a horse who should appreciate added ground. My top pick is Gamebred (#3), another contender who has never tried two turns before. However, he did run the best race of his career in his lone start stretching out to a mile in January. He was facing a pretty strong starter allowance field and held his own with a strong second-place finish, earning a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would likely win here. He has regressed in two subsequent starts, but he was against a track bias two back and never in great position last time. I'm expecting him to get a more aggressive ride picking up Jose Lezcano breaking from an advantageous inside post position.